Where will Barry's rain head after this weekend?
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
July 14, 2019, 5:19:07 AM EDT
Rainfall will diminish as the storm continues to move inland, but only to a certain point. It is not uncommon for rain from a tropical system to continue to fall for hundreds of miles.
Barry, as a tropical rainstorm, is likely to take a large, curved northeastward path this week. Eventually, the feature and its showers and thunderstorms are likely to reach the Atlantic Ocean.
Enough rain is likely to fall over parts of the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys this week to cause urban and small stream flooding, as well as some rises on the secondary rivers.
A general 3-6 inches of rain is likely to fall on portions of western Tennessee, Kentucky and southeastern Missouri early this week, after the storm unloads heavier rain farther south into Monday.
A general 1-3 inches of rain is possible over southern portions of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Similar rainfall to this can occur around the central Appalachians or the lower Great Lakes region, depending on the exact track of Barry's leftover moisture.
However, anywhere along this path through the Midwest, Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, locally higher amounts of rain can occur. Some of that rain may fall in a period of a few hours; hence, there is an ongoing risk of flash and urban flooding.
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A key factor in determining the amount of rain that falls after a tropical system makes landfall is whether or not that system joins up with a non-tropical storm or a cold front. In either case, rainfall could again blossom, and rainfall amounts could be significantly higher.
Since Barry is not expected to latch onto another storm or front during most of its journey, widespread flooding rain is less likely from the Ohio Valley to the interior mid-Atlantic.
As is often the case in areas surrounding tropical systems, whether strong or weak, sinking air allows heat to build.
This setup, when combined with intense mid-July sunshine, will promote impressive hot and humid weather over a broad area from the the Midwest to the East.
"Widespread highs in the 90s F are likely over Central and Eastern states with the hottest days in the Midwest and Northeast likely to span Tuesday and Wednesday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
"Afternoon AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will be generally at or above 100 in the urban areas," Anderson said.
So in lieu of flooding, downpours that swing through this week may bring a welcomed break in the heat for some.
If Barry gets back over warm waters of the Atlantic, off the East coast of the United States, there is a chance that the system will redevelop. As the feature nears the coast, it may get picked up by a front.
However, steering winds would take the feature out to sea, and it may not be considered a tropical system.
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