Tropical disturbance in western Gulf to pose threat to parts of US
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will fail to develop into the second named storm of the season but may cause big problems for already hard-hit flooded areas.
With the risk of development down to 0%, the chance of development has ended as the system will move inland at midweek.
This satellite image was captured on Tuesday, June 4, 2019, and shows the mass of clouds associated with a tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA)
The area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical system will continue to drift northward through Wednesday night and Thursday as the feature scrapes the western shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico.
This track may unleash heavy rainfall over the lower Mississippi Valley later this week and this weekend.
High amounts of wind shear as the system moved northward prevented it from developing into an organized tropical depression or tropical storm. Low wind shear is typically favorable for development, while high wind shear hinders tropical development.
The exact track and strength of the tropical disturbance will ultimately determine the magnitude and corridor of the heaviest rain. However, a strong and well-organized tropical feature is not necessary for heavy rain and flooding to occur.
"Since the system failed to develop, the heavier rainfall and thunderstorm areas are well removed from the center and mostly to its east as of Wednesday morning," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"So, despite the center of the system moving near Deep South Texas, the heaviest rainfall will probably stay over the Gulf of Mexico initially but generally remain east of Deep South Texas through its entirety," Kottlowski said.
"The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur over eastern Texas on to the north and northeast and into Louisiana."
"Late this week, moisture from the tropical system is likely to interact with non-tropical features over the southern Plains to generate more heavy rainfall over places that are already experiencing serious flooding."
A general 1-3 inches of rain can fall on a daily basis in the path of the tropical moisture. The moisture associated with the tropical system can produce a daily AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches.
It is possible that some areas along the path of the moisture may receive a foot of rainfall in total over a multiple-day period.
The surge of water moving downstream along the Mississippi River may hit the lower part of the waterway close to the same time as floodwaters from the Arkansas join in. In addition, heavy rainfall from the tropical feature will move through late this week and this weekend.
Any heavy rainfall from the lower part of the southern Plains to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley is not welcome at this point. Some rivers have crested at record levels, and others are within several feet of record heights.
If tropical moisture becomes fully engaged, several feet of water could be added to some of the already swollen rivers.
Rain and thunderstorms from the combination of tropical and non-tropical features may then be steered across the Ohio Valley and Southeastern states this weekend and perhaps part of the mid-Atlantic early next week.
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