Well, this was a good effort by not only me but also Jason Nicholls, Eric Wanenchak and Paul Pastelok, and I think we got a pretty good idea of what is going to happen over Europe, and the one word is HOT.

This warmth is the big story for the season, as we are thinking that parts of eastern Europe will be more above normal than any other area for Europe. Areas from the Ukraine down through northern Greece even could be upwards of 3-6 degrees above normal, which would be one of the warmest summers in several years there. In fact, the last ones that were like this were 2009 and 2002, both summers we are focusing on with our forecasts. The heat in eastern Europe looks to be not only the story, but the entire continent being hot will be a big deal. The only saving grace for central and western Europe is things start a bit on the wetter-than-normal side, but we likely see the heat come in for the end of summer, making for a very hot July and especially August time period. We could see the entire continent average above normal for August, and it's not completely out of the question to see things be above normal for the entire summer either. Another big item to talk about is the warmth coming over northern Europe, particularly Scandinavia. Though the entire summer will not be hot there, any heat waves could be quite harsh, and we may see some forest fires from the heat and drier conditions. And finally, the wet weather over Switzerland and northern Italy may get above-normal rainfall, but that looks to be about the only location we can see above-normal rainfall with much of the continent being below, and some areas well below, normal.

Speaking of rainfall, this is the rainfall map for the summer. This is quite an expansive area of dry weather, and we may even see that larger if it was not for the cooler and wetter weather we see in June over much of central and northern Europe. We could see some departures of 50-60% from normal for parts of Ukraine and through the Balkans. Yeah, the area we are seeing flooding in looks to be tempered in the next several weeks to very little by July and August. The worst of the drought looks to be in the Ukraine, which could be an issue with wheat and barley as those are the major crops. Prices for wheat may rise just on that extreme warmth we are looking at. It does look like we will see some above-normal rainfall for Switzerland and northern Italy, and that will likely be offset to above normal from the wet weather at the beginning of the forecast. That looks to be near to even below normal for the end of summer.

And this is the temperature graphic we are expecting. This should be scary as no one is looking to be below normal, and we could see that heat in eastern Europe being some of the hottest we have seen for some time. We do think there will be some extreme heat also over Spain and Portugal in August. That heat will make for some of the hottest weather for the continent, where over 100-degree F temperatures will be very widespread for late in August. Meanwhile, we are hard pressed to find some below-normal temperatures, which could make things quite dangerous for people, especially in the northern Europe cities from Germany, France and into the U.K. and Ireland. Temperatures being warm, and little chance for a break overnight, will likely lead to some unfortunate deaths for the end of the summer.

So, there is little in the forecast for cooler and wet weather, so really enjoy the cooler and wetter weather that we see now as that looks to come to an end quickly, but more on the short-term forecast over the next several blog entries.

Look global, Forecast local

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