Southern India could have one-two punch of monsoonal, tropical moisture for early November

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
November 04, 2018, 10:03:21 AM EST

While the Southwest Monsoon withdrawal continues to promise dry weather for much of India, the Northeast Monsoon is officially just beginning.

"High pressure sets up over China during November, and blows winds down from the Himalayas into the Indian Ocean," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

This helps to dry out a lot of India this time of year; however, the exception is across parts of southeastern India, where this leads to an onshore flow and more moisture.

Coastal parts of southern Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu-Pondicherry are likely to see this uptick in moisture first, with an average onset date of Oct. 20, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and typically runs into December.

The IMD officially declared the start of the Northeast Monsoon in these areas on Nov. 1 this year. On Nov. 2, the Northeast Monsoon rain has commenced over remaining parts of Tamilnadu and adjoining North Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.

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Despite the late start to the Northeast Monsoon season, the area could make up that rainfall amount rather quickly.

After a brief break from heavier rain for the first few days of November, tropical moisture may be steered into southern India this week.

A tropical low may move across northern Sri Lanka and into Tamil Nadu from Tuesday into Thursday.

There is just a small chance that this develops into a tropical cyclone, though may still lead to heavy rainfall and the threat for isolated flooding even if it does not develop.

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Periods of rain coming onshore could bring over 100-200 mm of rain (4-8 inches) in just a couple of days.

These sudden downpours could lead to flooding issues and even mudslides in the higher terrain of Tamilnadu and Kerala.

Areas that should anticipate heavier rain include areas to the south of Chennai and Puducherry, though both of these cities could have occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Interests in the area should consider monitoring the situation along with AccuWeather closely in the coming days.

Download the free AccuWeather App to stay on top of the latest tropical information and when rain is expected next for your area.

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