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Record-setting monsoon season causes Southwest drought

By Lauren Fox, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Oct 3, 2020 7:06 PM EDT

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The Southwest monsoon season has come to an end for many cities. AccuWeather's Brittany Boyer recaps the season and has more on what lies ahead.

Across the Southwestern United States, what should have been a season packed with thunderstorms and rain turned out to be almost entirely parched -- and records were broken through the region as a result.

Monsoon season runs from June 15 to the end of September and is typically expected to bring a wash of wet weather to the area. This year, however, the Southwest experienced a drier-than-usual monsoon season, with many cities breaking records.

"Every summer, it gets really hot in the Southwest and low pressure develops mainly over Arizona," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said. "This causes more air from the tropics to get drawn northward out of Mexico into the Southwest, and then you get your showers and thunderstorms."

The dry desert soil cracks due to the lack of monsoon rainfall, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020, in Maricopa, Ariz. Cities across the U.S. Southwest recorded their driest monsoon season on record this year, with many places seeing next to no rain this year. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Smerbeck explained that usually, an area of high pressure forms over the southern Rockies, and clockwise flow around the area of pressure pushes tropical moisture into the Southwest. This year, he said the area of high pressure built up over the Great Basin, farther west than usual, which prevented the tropical moisture from traveling north.

For many Southwestern cities, this monsoon season was the driest on record, including Flagstaff, Grand Canyon, Yuma, Prescott, Show Low and Bellemont, all located in Arizona. Las Vegas tied with its previous record dry monsoon season and broke its record for the longest streak of consecutive days without rain.

"The monsoon season was pretty much a dud," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok told AccuWeather's Brittany Boyer. "It just tried to get going and it never happened."

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"We had a couple of days where it surged, but there were a lot of days where there was just nothing going on," Pastelok told Boyer.

For any particular place in the Southwest, Pastelok explained that about on third of the moisture it receives is dependent on the monsoon season. So as a result of this year's dry season, the drought will continue through the winter and possibly spring, and even the early parts of the summer.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Kate Guillet told AccuWeather during a phone interview in September, that the dryness from the monsoon season could have been a contributor in the out-of-control wildfires that continue to plague the region.

"Normally if it is drier we see heat be a bigger problem because we don't have the moisture to kind of temper down how hot it can get," National Weather Service Meteorologist Kate Guillet told AccuWeather during a phone interview in September. "So this year we had multiple heat waves that moved in and numerous records over the last few months... in addition to fire weather concerns. Without that rain that helps moisten up the vegetation the fire fuels are extremely dry right now."

Looking ahead, Pastelok is not optimistic that the region can make up on lost precipitation.

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How can rain fall in Las Vegas while the city's record-setting dry streak continues?

"What we're going to need is these big systems to die down into northern Mexico," Pastelok said. "It's the only way you're going to get rain. At this point, I don't see it in the pattern."

As the Southwest transitions into a La Niña period, tropical moisture in large will evade the Southwest, leading to drier and cooler months ahead.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

Reporting by Brittany Boyer

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