Not chocolate! Is the beloved treat really set to go extinct by 2050?

Chocoholics can breathe a sigh of relief. Experts say that despite recent reports that the Theobroma cacao tree faces extinction by as early as 2050 due to the impacts of climate change, the beloved treat is under no such threat in the foreseeable future.

“I think that the claims that got put out there that the chocolate tree was going to go extinct are really overhyped, and the likelihood of that is almost zero,” said Dr. Mark Guiltinan, a professor of plant molecular biology and co-director of Pennsylvania State University’s Guiltinan-Maximova Research Lab.

Claims recently circulated the internet with a variation of shocking headlines asserting that chocolate could be kaput in fewer than 40 years, much to the dismay of chocolate lovers.

According to claims, rising global temperatures will render Ivory Coast and Ghana, two West African countries that produce more than half the world’s chocolate, unsuitable to grow cacao trees in the coming decades.

Stories referenced a 2016 article published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which reported that climate change could push current chocolate-growing regions more than 1,000 feet uphill into mountainous regions presently preserved for wildlife.

This information is based on the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report, according to Snopes.

The report outlined a “business as usual” scenario of future carbon emissions, which could result in a temperature increase of 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2050, with no change in total rainfall. These changes could trigger a considerable decline in areas suitable for growing cocoa in Ghana and “almost total elimination” of ideal growing areas in Ivory Coast, without farmers taking measures to adapt.

“Reducing the amount of cacao-producing land to an even narrower region could speed up the spread of disease,” wrote the Innovative Genomic Institute in a news release.

Nowhere in its 1,131 pages does the 2014 report appear to state that cocoa will go extinct by 2050, however. While climate change does pose potential threats to cocoa production, it’s not expected to wipe chocolate entirely off the map anytime soon, experts clarified.

“If the warming and drying trend continue, there can be added stress to cocoa trees unless steps are taken to supplement rainfall, such as through water harvesting or irrigation,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

“Given the slow rate of change, I have my doubts that all the trees will become extinct by 2050, especially since Ghana's cocoa exports have gradually increased from 2013-2017,” Nicholls added.

Studies have been conducted on the modeling of climate change and how it might impact North America, South America and West Africa, and how it might affect the zones in which cacao is grown, according to Guiltinan.

“More or less, those studies show that the zone for best growth of cacao might shift a little and move in those countries,” Guiltinan said.

He added that while some places may become unsuitable for cacao trees, other locations are likely to adapt and become suitable.

Cocoa production also isn’t limited to West Africa. The cocoa tree also thrives in places including the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia.

“It’s a slow process because it’s a tree crop, and moving tree crops or planting [takes time],” Guiltinan said.

“Climate change is also a very slow-motion process,” he said. “The thought is basically that cocoa plants can move along with the climate change, and there will always be a demand for it, so there will always be people that want to grow that for a living.”

Cacao is essential to the livelihoods of more than 40 million people across the globe, according to the World Cocoa Foundation.

The foundation’s Climate-Smart Cocoa Program works with key cocoa-producing countries in West Africa and Latin America to develop climate-smart strategies, including mapping and modeling current and potential climate change impacts, helping to build a more resilient cocoa sector.

“Predictions of climate change allow us to be more proactive in terms of thinking into the future, as well as putting in place and adopting activities and practices now that will allow for better cocoa production, improved livelihood and, overall, a more sustainable cocoa economy,” said World Cocoa Foundation Director of Environment Ethan Budiansky.

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