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Tropical Storm Narda to unleash flooding downpours on western Mexico this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Robert Richards, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Sep 25, 2019 5:14 PM EDT

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Narda has moved into the coast of Mexico as of midday Sunday, local time.

As of 11 p.m. EDT Monday, Narda had moved inland and was located over Puerto Vallarta. The tropical storm had winds of 45 mph.

The heaviest rainfall is expected near and just inland from Mexico's western coastline and will raise the threat of flash flooding and mudslides in the coming days.

Locations such as Tapachula, Acapulco, Zihuatanejo, Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, will be in the zone of highest risk.

Daily downpours will be possible across much of southeastern Mexico and neighboring parts of Central America each of the next several days.

As the tropical system moves northwestward, downpours will expand with it, encompassing areas as far north as Jalisco, Nayarit and southern Sinaloa into Monday.

Total rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) will be possible in areas near the coast from Nayarit southward to Chiapas through Monday, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches). This on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes will be a 1.

While the rain will not be constant in any given location, downpours can total 50 mm (2 inches) within a few hours, resulting in flash flooding and significant travel disruptions.

Related:

Mexico Weather Center
Interactive Mexico weather satellite
In case you missed it: 1st week of fall featured earthquake swarms, flooding and chaotic lightning-lit nighttime footage

Rough seas, dangerous surf and rip currents will occur along Mexico's western coastline and persist this week.

Daily showers and thunderstorms will also spread farther inland across the interior of central and southern Mexico into early this week.

Locations such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, Durango and Oaxaca will be at risk for these showers and thunderstorms that can produce localized flooding.

This tropical system will continue to track generally northward, bringing the risk for downpours into Baja California Sur and northern Mexico.

A direct hit by a tropical storm on the region could result in significant flooding along with damaging winds; however, if the storm remains weak due to interaction with land, Baja California and the rest of northern Mexico would be spared any damaging winds.

Tropical moisture will then be pulled northward into New Mexico and Texas, where there will be additional flooding concerns.

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