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    Jose to track close enough to bring rough surf, wind and rain to northeastern US

    By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
    September 17, 2017, 5:39:12 AM EDT

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    Jose will track close enough to the northeastern United States to raise seas and winds, as well as to deliver rain to coastal areas during the first half of the week.

    People in coastal areas of the Northeast will need to monitor the progress of Jose, which will track northward, but remain offshore of the Southeastern states this weekend.

    "It appears that Jose will miss the quick ride away from the U.S. coast and into the cold waters of the North Atlantic this week," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

    Jose track 9.17 AM

    Instead, Jose is expected to pass within a few hundred miles of the coast.

    "We cannot rule out landfall in New England during the middle of the week," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

    If a landfall were to occur, the most likely location would be along eastern Long Island or Cape Cod.

    Jose is expected to be past its peak intensity at this time, weakening to a tropical storm or transitioning to a non-tropical system.

    The exact track and strength of Jose will determine the severity of the wind, surf and coastal flooding, as well as the northwestern extent of the rain.

    Jose to bring significant impact, even if storm stays offshore

    A hurricane does not need to make landfall to cause significant adverse effects in the Northeast, since the shape of the coast tends to enhance storm effects and trap ocean water.

    Rough surf, strong rip currents and minor coastal flooding will be a problem along the southern Atlantic coast through Sunday.

    Static Jose Impact Through This Weekend

    At this point, impact in the northeastern U.S. is based on a strong tropical storm, minimal hurricane or hybrid storm that comes close to the Northeast coast, but remains slightly offshore. Such a storm and track will tend to keep the most significant effects to communities along and east of Interstate 95.

    At the very least, Jose will cause dangerous surf and seas, which will lead to beach erosion and minor flooding at times of high tide from eastern North Carolina to Maine.

    The number and frequency of rip currents will increase along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts into Sunday. Breakers powerful enough to cause serious injury may reach much of the Northeast coast early this week.

    Jose Northeast rough surf 9.17 AM

    "Waves of 10-20 feet are possible from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to New England early next week," Pydynowski said.

    With the new moon phase early next week, tide levels are higher than most of the rest of the month. A strong storm tracking near the coast may push tides to 1-3 feet above published levels.

    Winds may get strong enough to damage trees and cause sporadic power outages. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph are possible from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to eastern Maryland to southern Maine.

    Jose impacts new Sep 16

    Jose may track close enough to eastern Long Island and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to whip up gusts of 60 to 70 mph. This area may also be subject to the heaviest rain of Jose.

    Otherwise, some rain with localized downpours will graze the mid-Atlantic coast and spread over New England.

    The combination of rain and wind near the coast will lead to airline delays and slow travel on area highways.

    Much worse effects are likely if landfall occurs

    Should Jose remain a Category 1 hurricane and/or make landfall, more significant effects are likely.

    "The slow-forward speed of Jose and pre-existing onshore flow will enhance the risk of coastal flooding, which could be worse than a Category 1 hurricane in some cases," according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist and Chief Operating Officer Evan Myers.

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    If Jose maintains hurricane strength longer than expected and/or makes landfall, property damage, widespread power outages, flooding rainfall and moderate coastal flooding would result.

    What will influence Jose's strength?

    Jose is expected to maintain Category 1 intensity through early this week as waters are sufficiently warm enough.

    "Jose may struggle to intensify all that much more due to some wind shear affecting it," Pydynowski said.

    The changing of the speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere is wind shear. Strong wind shear can shred apart tropical storms or hurricanes.

    "As Jose moves off the coast of the upper mid-Atlantic and New England, water temperatures drop significantly, which may lead to weakening or transformation to a subtropical system," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

    Even if Jose weakens or loses some tropical characteristics, the storm may spread out in size and the same adverse effects of wind, seas and rain can occur.

    Preparation for the equivalent of a moderate to strong nor'easter may be warranted, especially in southeastern New England.

    Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Lee and Maria joined Jose in the basin on Saturday.

    Residents of the Gulf and East coasts of the United States will have to closely monitor the progress of Maria for any future impacts in the final days of September.

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