Indian Ocean...Cyclones and More
--There are some interesting things going on in and about the Indian Ocean, as a late infrared satellite shot shows.
First is the matter of tropical cyclones south of the Equator. There is 06S, the former Tropical Cyclone Celina. Now a tropical depression, Celina is marked by the bright cloud patch east of Madagascar and southeast of Mauritius. Northerly shear has been blowing outflow southward from the center of 06S and this likely accounts for its weakening. Prospects for further life as a tropical cyclone seem low indeed; the JTWC forecast dissipation.
While we are loosing one named tropical cyclone, another is in the making. The JTWC have already designated 07S (that is it, straight south of Sri Lanka). While 07S was credited (as of 1200 hours GMT, Tuesday) with 35-knot (65-kmh) highest sustained winds, the JTWC had not yet given it a name. Far from any land (nearly 100 miles east-southeast of Diego Garcia) and seeming to favor a southwesterly tack, 07S is, for the time being, no threat to any land.
As had been suggested Monday, a second area of interest across the Equator from southern India has been squeezed out in deference to 07S.
--Indian Subcontinent:
Monday, I spoke of a tropical wave that was making ready to bring downpours to Sri Lanka and southern India. Well, it has been doing precisely that today, Tuesday. It is now Tuesday night and, with a cloudburst underway, rainfall thus far has topped 88 mm (3.3 inches) at Chennai. Further south are higher amounts: 137 mm (5.4 inches) at Karaikal, 129 mm (5.1 inches) at Cuddalore and 108 mm (4.2 inches) at Tiruchchirappalli. As the core of this tropical wave shifts westward from southernmost India Wednesday and Thursday, its widespread and locally heavy rain will linger over southern India and Sri Lanka with a tendency to fade after Wednesday.
December brings to an end the rains of the North East Monsoon over southeastern India. I understand that some areas (such as greater Chennai) came up short of rain this season, so these must be welcome rains overall.
The wave crossing southernmost India Tuesday has enough `punch` to be a candidate for growth once it settles over the open southern Arabian Sea. I will be watching.
--Southern Africa:
That broad sweep of cloud spread over southern Africa, but feeding a stream of moisture southeast to the Southern Ocean, betells a healthy seasonal rain setup. Much of southern Africa has a monsoon climate with summer being the time of life-giving rains. I believe this would be known as the `North West Monsoon`, as in northern Australia.
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