Hurricane Olivia to aim for Hawaii this week

Following Norman's pass to the northeast last week, Olivia is expected to track very close or over Hawaii as a strong tropical storm or hurricane around midweek.

"Because of the warm waters surrounding the islands this year, we may continue to see tropical storms and hurricanes maintain more strength as they approach Hawaii not only from the south, but also the east," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Relatively cool waters north and east of Hawaii usually act as a buffer against hurricanes and strong tropical storms from reaching the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Tropical systems need sufficiently warm water to thrive.

From a traditional standpoint, tropical storms and hurricanes that move up through the warm waters to the south, such as 1992's Iniki and 2018's Lane, have a higher chance at maintaining strength.

However, due to the effects of a budding El Niño, water temperatures are significantly higher than average throughout the islands.

Norman took a more traditional curved path well northeast of the islands.

Olivia, on the other hand, will be in a somewhat different steering pattern.

"An area of high pressure is building westward and is likely to help steer or push Olivia significantly farther to the west, when compared to Norman," Kottlowski said.

Olivia is expected to make its closest approach to the islands during Tuesday and Wednesday.

"As Olivia moves closer to the Hawaiian Islands it will move over warmer water, and therefore chances are it will be near hurricane force when it moves through those islands during Tuesday night and Wednesday, local time," Kottlowski said.

"All interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the movement of Olivia," Kottlowski added.

It is unusual for Hawaii to be hit by hurricanes, let alone two in a year. Hawaii has also never been hit by a hurricane from the east.

"If Olivia were to remain a hurricane when moving through the islands this would be something that has never happened," Kottlowski said.

Two hurricanes, Eselle and Ana, did impact the islands in 2014, however before those two hurricanes the last hurricane to hit was Iniki in 1992.

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In comparison to this hurricane season, the 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season was a record-breaking one with 15 named systems that broke the old record of 11 set in 1992 and 1994. Following an active 2014 season and Iselle's hit on the Big Island, 2015 brought several close calls as well as tropical storm conditions to the Big Island from Niala. 1992 and 2015 were both El Niño years.

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