Risk of 'extraordinary' coastal El Niño rises in Peru
The conditions significantly increase the threat of torrential rains, widespread flooding and severe damage to Peru's infrastructure.
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Sept. 15 (UPI) -- Peru's climate authorities have raised to 85% the probability that the coastal El Niño phenomenon will reach "extraordinary" intensity between September and January, with expected effects on transportation infrastructure, food production, water supplies and household spending.
A technical report issued Monday by the country's scientific commission known as ENFEN confirmed that the South American coast is facing abnormal ocean warming that could push temperatures to record levels.
The conditions significantly increase the threat of torrential rains, widespread flooding and severe damage to Peru's infrastructure.
According to ENFEN, the probability for September rose 10% from the 75% projected in late August. The probability of reaching extraordinary intensity falls to 82% in October, 78% in November, 70% in December and 59% in January. For February and March, the most likely scenario ranges between strong and extraordinary intensity.
ENFEN's scientific assessment, along with projections from consulting firms and economic groups under an extraordinary-intensity scenario, points to severe structural and biological consequences for Peru's fishing and agricultural sectors.
Extreme warming of surface waters dramatically alters the marine ecosystem, reducing the availability of cold-water species, particularly anchoveta, or Peruvian anchovy, which is the foundation of the country's fishmeal and fish oil industry. The fish migrate south or move into deeper waters in search of lower temperatures.
Economic projections estimate that Peru's extractive fishing sector could contract between 22% and 33.9%, putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk and disrupting normal fishing seasons, the newspaper El Comercio reported.
Peru is expected to face an "extraordinary" coastal El Niño that could lead to critical water deficit in the Andes. (Photo Credit: Ernesto Arias/EPA-EFE)
At the same time, warmer waters encourage the arrival of warm-water species, providing temporary relief for artisanal fishers but failing to offset losses in the industrial fishing sector.
Agricultural exports and regional food security could also suffer significant setbacks from the looming climate crisis.
Along Peru's northern and central coasts, air temperatures expected to remain well above normal during the Southern Hemisphere spring could affect flowering and yields of key crops including blueberries, mangoes, avocados and lemons. Agricultural output could fall by more than 6%, potentially pushing up prices for staple foods in 2027, according to reports by Infobae.
The situation is expected to worsen beginning in November with the arrival of torrential rains and flooding that could destroy irrigation infrastructure and transportation routes. In contrast, Peru's southern Andean highlands face a critical water deficit that threatens family farming and traditional livestock production.
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