Flooding rain risk to return to Plains, Midwest and Northeast
Rounds of heavy rain will raise the risk of flooding across the Plains and Midwest before reaching the Northeast this weekend, while bringing drought relief to some hard-hit areas, yet perhaps slowing harvest operations.
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A series of storms will bring rounds of drenching rain, a risk of flash flooding and much-needed drought relief to parts of the Plains and Midwest into the weekend. As dry air retreats, some of the moisture, along with the threat of flooding, will spread into the Northeast beginning this weekend.
The storm that caused a swath of heavy rain, harvest disruptions and localized flooding early this week will ease by Wednesday evening. As of midday Wednesday, rain during the previous 72 hours had delivered 5 inches to Atlantic, Iowa; nearly 4 inches to Kirksville, Missouri; and 3.44 inches to Omaha, Nebraska.
Soon after the rain fades across much of this region Wednesday evening, the next low-pressure area will begin moving into the Plains along a boundary separating cool air to the north from hot air to the south.
Spotty downpours are forecast to develop across the central Plains and Midwest Wednesday night and evolve into a zone of drenching downpours from southern Iowa to northwest Ohio on Thursday.
The main area of rain will strengthen Thursday over parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, western Iowa and southwestern Minnesota then expand eastward across the Midwest Thursday night and Friday.
Some areas hit by heavy rain earlier this week will be drenched again.
Those locations, along with areas farther north in Minnesota and Wisconsin, could receive enough rain to cause urban and small-stream flooding, regardless of existing soil-moisture levels.
With the fall harvest underway, heavy rain and soggy fields could delay agricultural operations.
A broad area from central South Dakota to central Wisconsin is forecast to receive 2-4 inches of rain, with localized totals of 4-8 inches. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for this zone is 10 inches.
Enough rain may fall along the Interstate 35, 90 and 94 corridors in Minnesota and Wisconsin, including the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, to slow travel.
Moisture spreading eastward from the Midwest will gradually displace the dry air over the Northeast.
Moisture will increase into Thursday as dew points rise, allowing spotty showers and thunderstorms to persist eastward into the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and New England.
Most of these showers will be unremarkable, but a few could produce rainfall heavy enough to cause ponding on highways and city streets.
Drier air will push southward from Friday into Saturday. Humidity may briefly decrease Friday, especially across upstate New York and New England, before increasing again Saturday. This drop in moisture should be enough to turn off the showers.
Locally heavy thunderstorms may drench parts of West Virginia, Virginia and the Carolinas Friday into Saturday as the moisture boundary shifts southward.
As the next low-pressure area moves east from the Midwest, rain and thunderstorms will develop and spread from the central Appalachians into the mid-Atlantic and southern New England from late Saturday through Sunday.
The timing of Sunday's rain could impact several football games, including Pittsburgh playing in New England and Green Bay playing in New York.
After a brief lull, another round of downpours may spread from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast Monday into Tuesday.
From Saturday night through Tuesday, some locations may receive enough rain within one or several hours to trigger flash flooding in urban areas and along small streams. Similar flooding occurred last weekend in parts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms will remain active across Florida into next week. The most frequent and heaviest downpours, with the greatest risk of flash flooding, will focus on the southern third of the peninsula.
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