2026 Atlantic hurricane season: 2 areas could boost tropical activity
El Niño has stifled Atlantic tropical activity, but AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking two areas for possible development, including one near the United States Gulf Coast.
There are two potential areas of tropical development that forecasters are watching in mid-September, but what are the odds of a new storm?
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring two areas for possible development through late September, including one near the United States Gulf Coast. These tropical threats are emerging amid a weather pattern dominated by El Niño, which has largely suppressed tropical activity across the Atlantic throughout most of the hurricane season.
Central Atlantic has higher odds of storm formation
"The area with the greatest risk, which currently has a medium chance of development, is a zone several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
"This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm."
Disruptive wind shear and dry air remain widespread across the Main Development Region (MDR), which extends from near the Caribbean to the west coast of Africa. However, the atmosphere southeast of Bermuda is somewhat more humid and wind shear is lower than across much of the Atlantic basin.
The window for development is Sept. 17-21.
This area of interest could bring downpours, squalls and rough seas to Bermuda, especially if it becomes a tropical storm. Currently, it does not pose a risk of direct impacts to the United States.
Another ‘homegrown’ tropical threat may emerge near Gulf Coast
AccuWeather meteorologists are also watching the northern Gulf, a familiar area for tropical development this season.
Tropical systems that develop close to the United States are sometimes referred to as "homegrown" or "homebrew" storms. Rather than traveling thousands of miles across the Atlantic, they form along or just off the coast and can quickly bring heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas. Because they develop near populated areas, residents may have little time to prepare.
Tropical storms Arthur, Bertha and Edouard were essentially homebrew systems that formed within a few hundred miles of the U.S. coast.
A dip in the jet stream along the Atlantic coast may allow a storm in the upper atmosphere to break away and drift southwestward across Florida later this week.
"Wind shear and the storm’s swift movement will initially prevent it from extending to the surface and developing into a tropical system," DaSilva said. "However, if it slows down over the northern Gulf, a tropical depression or storm could develop near the Gulf Coast from late this week into this weekend."
A large area of high pressure, or heat dome, to the north could help provide additional spin to any storm that develops over the Gulf.
El Niño to continue suppressing Atlantic tropical development
The Atlantic remains well behind the historical pace for named storms. Five storms have formed so far, compared with an average of nine by mid-September.
An average Atlantic season produces four hurricanes by mid-September, but none have formed in 2026.
Of the two areas being monitored, the area southeast of Bermuda may have the higher chance of eventually becoming a hurricane. However, it must first organize into a tropical depression or storm.
If no Atlantic hurricane forms through Sept. 21, the 2026 season will set a record for the latest arrival of the season’s first hurricane.
"In a revised National Hurricane Center's original report, a storm achieved hurricane status on Sept. 21, 1941, which was the first of the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Digital Media Producer Jesse Ferrell said. "If the Atlantic remains without a hurricane through Sept. 21 this year, and one forms later, the 2026 season will set a new record for the latest first hurricane."
If no hurricanes form during the entire 2026 Atlantic season, it would become the first hurricane-free season of the satellite era, which began in the mid-1960s.
Only two Atlantic seasons are officially documented as having produced no hurricanes: 1907 and 1914.
In 1914, an El Niño year, only one tropical storm was documented during the entire Atlantic season. The storm made landfall in Florida before moving into Georgia with relatively minor impacts.
In 1907, when neither El Niño nor La Niña was present, no Atlantic tropical storms or hurricanes were documented.
Although these records are official, one or more storms may have formed without being detected. Before weather satellites, storms that remained far from land and shipping routes could easily go unnoticed.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to forecast a well-below-average Atlantic hurricane season because of persistent wind shear and dry air associated with El Niño.
Should either or both of the latest tropical development areas being monitored develop, the next two names on the list for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are Fay and Gonzalo.
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