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Drought-stricken Australia to welcome much-needed rain at midweek

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Sep 25, 2017 11:45 AM EDT | Updated Sep 26, 2017 12:50 PM EDT

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A cold front will spread showers across drought-stricken parts of eastern Australia during the middle of the week.

Much of New South Wales and Queensland have received less than 20 percent of normal rainfall so far during September. Less than 2.5 mm (0.10 of an inch) of rain has fallen in Sydney so far this month; normal rainfall for the month of September is 73.7 mm (2.90 inches).

The most frequent rainfall this month has been confined to Victoria and southeastern South Australia, though these areas have also received below-average rainfall.

Melbourne has reported only 23.4 mm (0.92 of an inch) of rain this month, which is 40 percent of normal.

Australia 9/25

"The dryness is starting to significantly impact the winter wheat, barley and canola crops," AccuWeather Senior International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

He also adds that this has been an impressive stretch of dry weather across the region.

Persistent dry weather has forced Australia to cut back crop export forecasts which could drive up global prices for canola and wheat.

BOM Map 2

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology

Soil moisture departure from normal shows the impact the dry weather has had across the region. The red shading across eastern Australia in the graphic above depicts below-normal levels of soil moisture.

While some rainfall will move across eastern Australia during the middle of the week, Nicholls does not anticipate this to be enough rain to erase drought conditions.

Showers will dampen the day on Wednesday across Victoria, southern New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

While showers are expected anytime in Melbourne, the day will start off dry in Canberra before showers begin during the afternoon.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect rainfall amounts to remain less than 6 mm (0.25 of an inch) in most areas.

The rainfall will spread northward into central and northwest New South Wales Wednesday night, approaching Sydney before dawn.

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While a shower can not be ruled out on Thursday much of the day will be dry with a mixture of clouds and sunshine.

"Rain will struggle to reach Sydney and areas farther to the north and east," Nicholls said.

Rainfall is expected to be less than 2.5 mm (0.10 of an inch) in the Sydney area.

Even though the front will lift northward across New South Wales, a cool flow off the ocean will produce some light rainfall across southern Victoria, including Melbourne on Thursday.

Another frontal boundary will bring the chance for additional showers on Friday and Saturday to southern Victoria; however, this front will not push northward allowing dry weather to return to New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

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