Don't put your shovel away just yet: Cold air may yield March snowstorms in Northeast

An upcoming change for early March will bring a return of colder weather, but will it yield bigger storms for the northeastern United States?

Following record-challenging warmth during the middle of this week, alternating waves of cool and mild air will take turns through the end of February in the East.

Most of the storms that move through are likely to bring rain and little snow and ice to the mid-Atlantic for the last week of February. A combination of rain, ice and snow is likely in New England.

For this period as a whole, temperatures are projected to average 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

However, as the calendar flips to March, significant changes are likely to take place in the jet stream pattern over North America.

"We will be watching for a southward dip in the jet stream over the Northeastern states during early March," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

A southward dip in the jet stream allows cold air to move across a region.

"A blocking pattern may also develop near Greenland which would cause the west-to-east motion of storm systems to slow down and for storms to track farther south in the eastern part of the U.S."

This atmospheric road block may allow cold air to hold its ground as storms approach.

"Temperatures are likely to average near normal in New England and perhaps slightly below normal in the mid-Atlantic during early March," Pastelok said.

"While the colder air slated for early March will not pack the punch of early January, it may get cold enough for more storms to come about with snow," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler.

Temperatures during early January averaged 10-20 degrees below normal for much of the Northeast. However, it is important to understand what the average temperature is for the time of the year.

For example, the average high temperature in New York City is in the upper 30s during early January. The average high is in the middle 40s during early March, but trends to near 50 by the middle of the month.

Since the pattern favors stronger storms for the Atlantic coast, some precipitation events may be quite heavy and impacts could be substantial.

The key will be how far to the east or west the dip in the jet stream occurs.

If the dip is too far east, storms will track too far south and strengthen too far offshore to bring big snow to the Northeast, including the Interstate-95 corridor. Such a pattern would deliver mainly dry and cold conditions.

If the dip sets up over the Great Lakes, then storms may strengthen while approaching the Northeast, but warm air may flood in from the ocean, especially along the coast.

"For snow lovers in the I-95 Northeast corridor, you want some cold air but not so much to turn the storms away," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

Multiple storms are likely during the first half of March. The exact track of each storm may vary.

So, if one storm misses with heavy snow, another may not.

Otherwise, the clock is ticking for big snowstorms in the Northeast with the first official day of spring now only a month away. Spring officially arrives on March 20.

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