Analysis: The role of weather in the elections

How Hurricane Michael devastation could impact the midterm elections
The elements play a role in Election Day, and consequently in the results. The overall impact of weather on Election Day is mixed on which party gains from these impacts.

There are a number of factors that influence voter turnout, including the costs that you incur to do it. As those costs rise, it decreases the likelihood that a voter will show up, according to Dr. Mike Binder, Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director at the University of North Florida.
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“Is your polling place an hour away because you have to take three bus transfers to get there or is your polling place set up in a location where you have to stand outside in either the heat or the rain or whatever the elements might be? Those things absolutely will lower turnout,” Binder said.

The voters affected by these impacts are borderline voters, the voters who vote only occasionally. Demographically or socioeconomically, these borderline voters tend to be more liberal.

The general rule of thumb is that the Republicans are praying for rain.

“However, in races where there is a great deal of enthusiasm for the Democratic party and where the Republican party might not be excited about their candidate, that’s an opportunity where it would not impact the Democrats, but it might impact the Republicans,” Binder said.

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