AccuWeather's long-range solar eclipse cloud cover forecast helped people plan

Millions of Americans and international tourists were able to experience the solar eclipse thanks to clear skies, or limited clouds, along much of the path of totality on April 8.  

With billions of dollars invested in travel, lodging, and outdoor event planning along the path of totality from Texas to Maine, AccuWeather’s team of expert meteorologists worked around the clock to provide solar eclipse cloud cover forecasts starting March 8 and updates leading up to the eclipse.

So, how did we do?

From Dallas, Texas, to Syracuse, New York, AccuWeather’s month-in-advance eclipse forecast provided valuable insight to people that was equal to, or greater than, the historical average of cloud cover along the path of totality.  

"One way to determine the value of long-range forecasts is to compare them to the historical average. Along a large swath of the path of totality, roughly 60 percent of the path, from Dallas to Syracuse, AccuWeather’s cloud cover forecast one month in advance of the total solar eclipse provided value to many people beyond just using the historical average. This included many of the major population centers in the path of totality such as Dallas, Little Rock, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. Our analysis shows our 30-day cloud cover forecast was less accurate in Northern New England and also parts of South Texas,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter. 

AccuWeather’s 30-day forecast also accurately forecast a sharp variation in potential viewing conditions across the Eastern Great Lakes, Porter explained. "This is exactly what occurred during the eclipse, with poor viewing conditions just north and east of Buffalo, New York, and good to superb viewing conditions in Erie, Pennsylvania and Cleveland, Ohio. Additionally, AccuWeather accurately identified that the Ohio Valley had a good shot at viewing the eclipse despite the typical, plentiful cloud cover in that region on past April 8ths, based on looking strictly at historical averages.” 

AccuWeather meteorologists say their first forecast issued on March 8 was less accurate in northern New England, where an area of high pressure led to clear skies and good viewing conditions for the total solar eclipse. Both the historical average of cloud cover along with AccuWeather’s eclipse cloud cover forecast also were less accurate in parts of Texas, where cloud cover impacted, or blocked the view of the eclipse from San Antonio to the southern border of the United States. 

AccuWeather expert long-range meteorologists had a key goal of providing advanced insight to help millions of people and thousands of businesses and event planners prepare for the once-in-a-lifetime event during a month known for notorious seasonal transitions, including cold fronts, severe storms, and cloud cover.  

“On average, forecasts issued a month in advance are not as accurate as the forecast for the next few days, and as such, AccuWeather cloud cover forecasts evolved as the eclipse drew closer and the forecast was further fine-tuned,” Porter said. “AccuWeather was able to provide value to people by not only factoring in the historical average cloud cover but also the expected weather pattern that evolved across the country during early April. AccuWeather’s expert long-range forecast team combined interpreted climatology, computer forecast models, and AI forecast tools to generate the month-in-advance forecast.” 

Porter says the team at the AccuWeather Global Weather Center has received positive feedback from people about our daily cloud cover forecast updates, which helped them prepare and make decisions, or last-minute travel adjustments, to be able to experience the rare celestial phenomenon.  

First AccuWeather Eclipse Cloud Cover Forecast issued March 8:

Historical average of cloud cover 

Solar eclipse viewing conditions on April 8

Report a Typo