3 changes the NHC is implementing for the upcoming 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was one for the record books, and as people prepare for what the upcoming hurricane season brings, they may notice changes that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is making.

The Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30, reaching its peak around the middle of September.

People that live near the coast should be mindful of developing or ongoing tropical systems during this time and take action if one is forecast to impact their area.

This year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is making some changes to maps and other products to help improve communication to the public, including where a tropical system is headed and what impacts it may bring.

Here are three changes that the NHC is making for the upcoming hurricane season:

1. Adjustments to the official hurricane track maps

One of the biggest changes this hurricane season will be adjustments to the NHC’s hurricane track map.

When the NHC issues a track for a tropical system, the map includes what is known as the cone of uncertainty.

“The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track,” the NHC said.

While this map shows where the center of the storm is projected to track, some impacts may be experienced in areas outside of the cone.

For the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, the cone will be smaller than it has been in past years.

This will give the public a better idea of where the center of the storm is headed in the coming days.

This is not the first time that the cone has been made smaller. Over the past 10 years, the cone for the predicted track of the storm five days in the future has shrunk by over 30 percent.

This cone will likely shrink more in the coming years as the accuracy of forecasts and weather models continues to improve.

2. Experimental wind maps will become official

In 2017, the NHC introduced an experimental map to help convey to the public when strong winds would arrive at a given location.

These experimental maps showed the expected arrival time of tropical storm-force winds in 6- to- 12-hour increments extending out five days out.

“The arrival of sustained tropical-storm-force winds is a critical planning threshold for coastal communities, as many preparedness activities become difficult or dangerous once winds reach tropical storm force,” the NHC said.

Not only should preparations be complete by the time these strong winds arrive, but anyone that is evacuating should have left the area as traveling in tropical-storm-force winds can be extremely dangerous.

After going through a test run in the 2017 season, the NHC has decided to make these maps fully operational for the upcoming season.

The NHC will be issuing two different maps showing variations of the expected arrival times.

“One [component] is the 'earliest reasonable time' one could expect tropical-storm-force winds within the forecast cone," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

“The second component is the 'most likely' time one could expect tropical-storm-force winds to reach a given location within the forecast cone,” Kottlowski said.

3. Advisories will include potential impacts farther in advance

Whenever there is an active tropical system, the NHC issues a public advisory that includes information about all aspects of the storm, such as current winds, expected storm surge and the precise location of the system's center.

In past years, these advisories only discussed the given tropical system for the next two days, limiting the amount of log-range details about the storm.

However, starting this year, these advisories will contain information that talks about hazards as far as five days in advance.

“This will better explain possible track and intensity chances or potential changes and forecast challenges,” Kottlowski said.

This extra information will help to save lives and protect property by providing people with possible impacts well ahead of the storm’s arrival, especially when forecasters have high confidence with a particular storm.

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