2018 South America winter forecast: Dryness to raise drought concerns in Brazil; Rain to bring occasional flood threat from Colombia to Uruguay

Dry and mild conditions are in store for much of Brazil, as well as areas along the Pacific coast this winter.

Meanwhile, rainy spells will ease worries of severe drought redeveloping across Colombia and Venezuela.

Dryness to bring drought concerns to Brazil

While winter is typically the driest time of the year for Brazil, much of the country will be drier than normal this season, including some of the country’s croplands.

The dryness will result in a growing drought concern, especially in some of the southeastern areas. This includes the states of Mato Grosso Do Sul, Paraná and São Paulo.

“[These areas] will have rainfall on occasion but will be below normal which can lead to stress on crops,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.

Mato Grosso is one of Brazil’s largest corn-producing states, and the worsening drought could cause this winter’s harvest to be up to 15 percent below normal, according to Reuters.

The dry pattern will be accompanied by mild weather throughout much of the season.

Meanwhile, far southern areas, including the state of Rio Grande do Sul, will have occasional rainy spells as fronts move in from the south.

Rainy spells to cause localized flooding from Colombia to Uruguay

While much of the season will be dry across Brazil, spells of wet weather will dampen areas around around Colombia and Venezuela.

“Far northern South America will likely experience enough rainfall throughout the season to avoid a recurrence of the severe drought issues that plagued the region back in 2016,” Nicholls said.

Early-season rain could impact the construction of Colombia’s Ituango dam, the country's largest dam project.

Evacuations have already been ordered due to fears of the dam collapsing following heavy rain.

If the water level in the reservoir behind the dam rises faster than the project can be completed, the water will flow over the dam and the structure will be lost, the Colombia Reports said.

Wet weather is also on tap for an area stretching from central Peru to the coast of Uruguay.

“[This area] will experience frequent fronts and near- to above-normal rainfall,” Nicholls said.

Heavy downpours that move through with these fronts could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas.

This includes Montevideo, Uruguay; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Asunción, Paraguay; and La Paz, Bolivia.

Warm, dry weather to dominate across Chile, central Argentina

A warm and dry pattern is set to unfold along the Pacific coast from Peru through much of Chile and into central Argentina.

“Dryness will be a problem across central portions of Chile and Argentina,” Nicholls said.

This will lead to increased drought concerns and reduced snowfall across part of the Andes Mountains.

While the season as a whole is expected to be drier than normal, the greater chance for rain will come during the second half of the winter.

Meanwhile, wetter weather will be experienced across the southern extent of South America in the coming months.

“A steady parade of storms will lead to frequent [rainfall] across southern portions of Chile and Argentina,“ Nicholls said.

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