2018 South America autumn forecast: Rounds of rain to limit heat in Brazil, Venezuela; Drought to worsen in Argentina
Warmth will be the trend across much of Argentina and the Pacific Coast this autumn, with dryness leading to drought concerns in some areas.
Meanwhile, rounds of rain will limit temperatures and dryness across much of northern and eastern South America.
Rain to frequent northern, central South America
Rounds of rain will soak much of the northern tier of South America this autumn, limiting drought concerns.
“The Amazon basin and north-central South America will have frequent rainfall and can be wetter than normal,“ AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
This includes much of Colombia, Venezuela, northwestern Brazil, eastern Peru and Bolivia.
The rain will keep temperatures near to below normal throughout much of the season.
Rain will also be common in northeastern Brazil early in autumn, but this will give way to drier conditions from April into May.
While rain frequents northern and eastern Brazil, drier conditions are in the forecast for southern regions of the country.
“Southern Brazil, namely Rio Grande Do Sul to Parana, will start the season drier than normal before trending toward a more active and wetter pattern later in the season,” Nicholls said.
“The wet pattern can lead to harvesting delays, but far southern Rio Grande So Sul can average drier than normal for the season,“ Nicholls added.
Drought concerns to build in Argentina, Uruguay
The dry conditions persisting across Argentina this summer will continue into the autumn, putting the country at risk for drought.
“Rainfall has been running below normal across the croplands of Argentina and Uruguay since Dec. 1, 2017. These areas will continue to average drier than normal through the autumn,” Nicholls said.
This includes the capital cities of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Montevideo, Uruguay.
Some rain may make it into this region of South America by May, but it is not likely to be enough to stave off the drought.
“The drier- and warmer-than-normal pattern will likely further stress corn and soybeans [grown across the region] as they push into maturing,” Nicholls said.
Warm, dry conditions to stretch along Pacific Coast
Dry and warm weather is predicted along much of the Pacific Coast this autumn, extending from Ecuador through Chile.
“Ecuador and portions of Peru will be drier than normal through autumn, but recent rainfall has been adequate to excessive, so drought conditions are not expected to develop,” Nicholls said.
Similar conditions are expected for northern and central Chile with waves of heat in March and April, including in the capital of Santiago.
There will be a couple of opportunities for light rainfall across central Chile, according to Nicholls.
Heavier rain will be seen farther south as an active storm track delivers wet weather to southern reaches of Chile and Argentina.
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