2017 South America spring forecast: Drought to persist in eastern Brazil; Frequent storms to pose flood risk to Chile, Argentina

Dry weather will be the theme for much of eastern and northern South America this spring, which will raise drought concerns as the season progresses.

Meanwhile, frequent storms will bring the threat for flooding farther south in parts of Chile and Argentina.

Drought to worsen across eastern Brazil

The threat for drought will loom for Brazil in the coming months as dry conditions dominate the weather pattern.

“Drier-than-normal conditions across eastern and central Brazil during the winter will likely carry into spring, leading to worsening drought conditions,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.

The greatest threat will be from the Brazilian states of Parana on northward.

The dry weather throughout the spring will have an impact on various crops grown across the region, including coffee, soybean and corn, Nicholls said.

While drought concerns grow across much of Brazil, other parts of the country will see more frequent rain.

“Areas farther south in Brazil, and into Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina have had adequate rains during the winter and we expect near- to slightly above-normal rainfall in these area for the spring as a whole,” Nicholls said.

This includes the Brazilian states of Rio Grande Do Sul and Santa Catarina, as well as the capital cities of Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina.

There is some concern that the rain may become less frequent by November in this area; however, it is unlikely that drought will begin to set in.

Dry pattern to raise drought concerns from Colombia to French Guiana

Winter rains have helped to ease drought conditions across northern areas of South America; however, dry conditions are poised to return in the coming months.

“There are worries that a drier pattern will return to these areas during the spring, raising the concern for returning drought conditions later in the season,“ Nicholls said.

This includes portions of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and northern Brazil.

Not only will the dryness lead to the risk of drought, but also a heightened threat of wildfires, especially heading into November, he said.

Rounds of rain to bring flood threat to Chile, Argentina

While many areas of South America cope with drier-than-normal conditions during the spring months, wet weather will be more common in southern regions of the continent.

“Frequent storms are likely across southern Chile into southern Argentina during September into October with the risk of flooding in these areas,” Nicholls said.

The majority of the storms will focus on the southern portions of these countries, but a few may make their way farther north, especially early in the season.

This could bring some rain to Santiago, Chile, which did not record any measurable rain last spring.

The frequent storms will not only bring the threat of flooding to southern Chile and Argentina, but will also cause temperatures to average below normal throughout the spring months.

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