White Christmas may stay just a dream for most of US this year
By
Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Dec 17, 2021 2:49 PM EST
|
Updated Dec 20, 2021 4:46 AM EST
A white Christmas is looking more and more like it will be just a dream for a large chunk of the contiguous United States as the holiday nears, but there are a couple of pockets of the country that may get some last-minute help from Mother Nature just in time for Christmas.
With the holiday about a week away, meteorologists have been able to take a closer look at which places could have a white Christmas. Chances have remained consistent for many parts of the U.S. since AccuWeather's initial outlook on Dec. 1, but in certain parts of the nation, there will be a decrease in the probability of a snowy Christmas as the Heat Miser may claim this year as a green Christmas.
AccuWeather's criteria for a "white Christmas" centers around having at least an inch of snow on the ground for the holiday -- a qualification that is difficult for many warmer locations in the U.S. even without a La Niña pattern present. This pattern, which originates with cooler-than-normal waters in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator, often drives an active storm track across the northern tier of the U.S. and leaves southern sections of the country drier than normal.
Areas across the southern U.S. won't have much of a change with most places from Southern California to the Eastern Seaboard still likely to experience lower-than-normal chances for snow. Farther to the north, the once near-normal chances for snow across the central and southern Plains have dropped to lower-than-normal chances.
The lower odds in this region are due to "too much dry air in place" across areas like western Nebraska and Kansas for any snow to develop, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. The dry zone will occur between active storm tracks, including one that will focus on the Rockies, another that will aim farther to the northeast across the Upper Midwest and finally storms that may move northward from the lower Mississippi Valley, Pastelok explained.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The East Coast was already forecast to have lower-than-normal chances of snow, but now chance in the central and southern Appalachians will drop as well as it may not be cold enough for snow to fall and remain on the ground in the aforementioned regions.
Near-normal probabilities are still expected in the Northeast, and in higher elevations, snow is likely to blanket the ground. However, a period of stormy and cold weather is possible near Christmas, which could result in rain and snow along the coast and accumulating snow farther inland.
Rain is still likely to overtake snow through Christmas in the Tennessee Valley to the lower Ohio Valley, making it difficult to keep any snow on the ground. However, just north, the chance remains that snow may fall along the southern shore of Lake Erie and stay for the holiday.
One major Midwest city that has faced a snow drought thus far this season is among those with higher-than-normal chances for a white Christmas. Chicago, a city known for its extreme cold and winter weather, hasn't yet recorded a measurable snowfall this season. On average, Chicago records its first snowfall around Nov. 18, and Dec. 20 is the latest date on record.
Meanwhile, in the Northwest, the mountains are still likely to have snow on the ground, and lower elevations will have a better-than-normal chance this year, including Seattle.
This change in the forecast follows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) recent release of "new normals" across the U.S. with regard to an updated look at average snowfall probabilities in late December. While this updated forecast is not due to the change in what is newly considered "normal," it does take the data into account.
Meteorologists use 30-year averages for an overall glimpse of the recent climate for an area, and this extends to when snow usually falls. The new release of normals relies on observations from 1991 to 2020 rather than 1981 through 2010.
The chances for a white Christmas, according to experts at NOAA, dropped as much as 10% across the central Plains, Midwest and parts of the Northeast, including cities like Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit and Indianapolis. Other areas, like the Great Basin, the northern Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains got an increase in snow. Even New York City's chances increased by 2% over the previous period.
As of Dec. 17, less than 30% of the U.S. was covered by snow, with an average depth of 1.9 inches, according to data from NOAA.
Most of the snowfall was located in the Rockies and the Great Basin, but the snow also stretched out to the northern Plains and even some parts of New England, reflective of what the states might just have come Christmas.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
Report a Typo
News / Weather Forecasts
White Christmas may stay just a dream for most of US this year
By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Dec 17, 2021 2:49 PM EST | Updated Dec 20, 2021 4:46 AM EST
A white Christmas is looking more and more like it will be just a dream for a large chunk of the contiguous United States as the holiday nears, but there are a couple of pockets of the country that may get some last-minute help from Mother Nature just in time for Christmas.
With the holiday about a week away, meteorologists have been able to take a closer look at which places could have a white Christmas. Chances have remained consistent for many parts of the U.S. since AccuWeather's initial outlook on Dec. 1, but in certain parts of the nation, there will be a decrease in the probability of a snowy Christmas as the Heat Miser may claim this year as a green Christmas.
AccuWeather's criteria for a "white Christmas" centers around having at least an inch of snow on the ground for the holiday -- a qualification that is difficult for many warmer locations in the U.S. even without a La Niña pattern present. This pattern, which originates with cooler-than-normal waters in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator, often drives an active storm track across the northern tier of the U.S. and leaves southern sections of the country drier than normal.
Areas across the southern U.S. won't have much of a change with most places from Southern California to the Eastern Seaboard still likely to experience lower-than-normal chances for snow. Farther to the north, the once near-normal chances for snow across the central and southern Plains have dropped to lower-than-normal chances.
The lower odds in this region are due to "too much dry air in place" across areas like western Nebraska and Kansas for any snow to develop, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. The dry zone will occur between active storm tracks, including one that will focus on the Rockies, another that will aim farther to the northeast across the Upper Midwest and finally storms that may move northward from the lower Mississippi Valley, Pastelok explained.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The East Coast was already forecast to have lower-than-normal chances of snow, but now chance in the central and southern Appalachians will drop as well as it may not be cold enough for snow to fall and remain on the ground in the aforementioned regions.
Near-normal probabilities are still expected in the Northeast, and in higher elevations, snow is likely to blanket the ground. However, a period of stormy and cold weather is possible near Christmas, which could result in rain and snow along the coast and accumulating snow farther inland.
Rain is still likely to overtake snow through Christmas in the Tennessee Valley to the lower Ohio Valley, making it difficult to keep any snow on the ground. However, just north, the chance remains that snow may fall along the southern shore of Lake Erie and stay for the holiday.
One major Midwest city that has faced a snow drought thus far this season is among those with higher-than-normal chances for a white Christmas. Chicago, a city known for its extreme cold and winter weather, hasn't yet recorded a measurable snowfall this season. On average, Chicago records its first snowfall around Nov. 18, and Dec. 20 is the latest date on record.
Meanwhile, in the Northwest, the mountains are still likely to have snow on the ground, and lower elevations will have a better-than-normal chance this year, including Seattle.
This change in the forecast follows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) recent release of "new normals" across the U.S. with regard to an updated look at average snowfall probabilities in late December. While this updated forecast is not due to the change in what is newly considered "normal," it does take the data into account.
Meteorologists use 30-year averages for an overall glimpse of the recent climate for an area, and this extends to when snow usually falls. The new release of normals relies on observations from 1991 to 2020 rather than 1981 through 2010.
The chances for a white Christmas, according to experts at NOAA, dropped as much as 10% across the central Plains, Midwest and parts of the Northeast, including cities like Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit and Indianapolis. Other areas, like the Great Basin, the northern Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains got an increase in snow. Even New York City's chances increased by 2% over the previous period.
As of Dec. 17, less than 30% of the U.S. was covered by snow, with an average depth of 1.9 inches, according to data from NOAA.
Most of the snowfall was located in the Rockies and the Great Basin, but the snow also stretched out to the northern Plains and even some parts of New England, reflective of what the states might just have come Christmas.
SEE ALSO:
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
Report a Typo