Polar push to decide snowy fate of late-week storm in eastern US
How colder air interacts with a developing storm will determine if and where a band of snow or a mix forms from the Appalachians to New England, with rain farther south and travel delays possible late week.
While parts of Virginia on north may experience wintry weather from Dec. 4-5, it’s expected to be a major rain event for most of the Southeast.
The weather pattern will be active through the first half of December across the central and eastern United States, with rounds of Arctic air arriving as the polar vortex shifts. Storms, some of which may bring snow, are expected to accompany each push of colder air. The next storm is expected to move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday night to Friday night.
How the colder air interacts with the storm over the southern U.S. will determine where accumulating snow occurs and where a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain versus plain rain develops from Thursday night to Friday night across the East.
"Should the cold air push too forcibly into the Northeast late in the week, the storm will escape out to sea with mostly rain for the Southeast and perhaps a narrow zone of snow, ice and rain or snow on its northern edge," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"However, should the cold air sit back just a bit in the Northeast and let the storm strengthen as it nears the Atlantic Coast, it could turn into a heavy snow accumulation from the southern Appalachians and Piedmont all the way to the interior mid-Atlantic and much of New England," Rayno explained.
A weaker storm is more likely than a major snowstorm. Still, there is the potential for a narrow strip of light to moderate snow or a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain on the northern side, which may affect some areas from West Virginia, Virginia and northwestern North Carolina to Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York and New England.
In one scenario, that snow band could extend through major cities and airport hubs from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
"As of Tuesday, the seeds for that storm were still over the northern Pacific," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "It may not be until Thursday, as the storm begins to reorganize near the Gulf Coast, that the location of any snow area becomes clearer."
Pastelok added that a weaker, northern component of the storm will bring spotty snow or flurries from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast to end the week. There may be a zone in between the southern storm and the northern snow where it remains dry.
One outcome appears certain: A portion of the Southeast will receive another round of soaking rain, which will further help to ease long-term drought conditions and lower the wildfire risk.
A general 1-2 inches of rain is expected from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with lesser amounts to the northwest and the southeast. The rain late this week will be in addition to the downpours from Monday to Tuesday.
While most of the rainfall can be beneficial, there can be localized flooding, especially on highways and in low-lying areas.
Before the late-week storm, flurries and heavier snow squalls are expected with the first of an Arctic front trio from late Wednesday to Thursday, from the Great Lakes to the Northeastern states.
These squalls may lead to slick roads and hazardous travel on highways at times, following the large, disruptive snow that fell Tuesday.
Later this weekend to early next week, there will be another attempt at a snow event for parts of the East. That storm looks to be even less intense than the system on Friday. However, its snow may be more spread out as it pushes from the Plains on Sunday to parts of the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then central and southern parts of the Appalachians Sunday night and on toward the Atlantic coast on Monday. Details on that snow extent will unfold in the coming days.
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