Taps may run dry in this country, where the water crisis is so severe it can be seen from space

Tehran is in the spotlight, but this is a crisis that goes well beyond the capital. Around 20 provinces haven’t seen a single drop of rain since the start of the rainy season at the end of September.

(CNN) — Rows of worshippers, some with their faces raised toward the sky, others with their heads bowed, prayed for rain at a mosque in Tehran earlier this month. Theirs is an increasingly desperate plea. The city is grappling with a water crisis so severe the Iranian president has suggested people may need to evacuate. The weeks tick by, still the rains don’t arrive.

There are fears water may run out completely in this vast, bustling city, whose metropolitan area is home to around 15 million people.

In a speech earlier this month, President Masoud Pezeshkian said water will be rationed if it does not rain in Tehran by December. If the lack of rain continues, residents “have to evacuate,” he said. Many experts say evacuation is unfeasible, but Pezeshkian’s rhetoric reflects the seriousness of Iran’s situation.

Tehran is in the spotlight, but this is a crisis that goes well beyond the capital. Around 20 provinces haven’t seen a single drop of rain since the start of the rainy season at the end of September, said Mohsen B. Mesgaran, an associate professor of plant sciences at the University of California, Davis. Roughly 10% of the country’s dams have effectively run dry, according to Reuters.

The roots of Iran’s water woes echo those in many other parts of the world: decades of over-extraction; aging, leaky infrastructure; a proliferation of dams erectedacross rivers; mismanagement; accusations of corruption. Through it all runs the thread of climate change, driving hotter, drier weather, meaning year after year, dried-out reservoirs are not replenished.

Iran’s current drought is the worst for at least 40 years and water levels are shrinking “at a time of year when you would normally expect storage to be recovering, not collapsing further,” said Amir AghaKouchak, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Irvine.

Iran, a mostly semi-arid country, is no stranger to water shortages, but rarely have they affected Tehran, home to most of the country’s rich and powerful.

The main reservoirs supplying the city are only around 11% full, according to Mohsen Ardakani, the director general of the Tehran Provincial Water and Sanitation Authority, as reported by Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency earlier this month.

The Latyan Dam, around 15 miles outside the city, is only about 9% full. Since May, the reservoir, nestled in the foothills of the Alborz mountains, has receded so much it has left an almost entirely dry riverbed in its wake, etched with just a few trickling streams.

The Amir Kabir Dam, about 40 miles northwest of Tehran, is also at perilously low levels, currently at around 8% of its total capacity, according to Reuters.

Beyond Tehran, water levels in the reservoirs supplying Iran’s second largest city Mashhad, home to around 3 million people, are at only around 3%, said Hossein Esmailian, head of Mashhad’s water and wastewater utility company, according to ISNA News.

Iran’s situation isn’t a short term disaster, but a rolling, long-term catastrophe bringing irreversible damages, said Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, who previously served as deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment.

He described the country as being in “water bankruptcy,” extracting from its rivers lakes and wetlands (akin to its checking account) and its underground aquifers (its savings account) at a much faster rate than they are replenished.

The government’s aim to achieve food self-sufficiency, partly in response to Western sanctions, is largely responsible for the situation, experts say. “For decades, policies have encouraged the expansion of irrigated agriculture in arid regions,” AghaKouchak said.

Irrigated farmland has doubled since 1979 and crops are thirsty, especially rice, an Iranian staple. The vast majority of Iran’s water, around 90%, goes to agriculture.

Lake Urmia, in northwestern Iran, is a clear casualty. Once one of the planet’s largest saltwater lakes, Urmia has shriveled over the past decades. Drought has played a role but the bigger driver is the dams and wells that have sprung up nearby to support farms, choking off supply to the lake. They have “pushed the system beyond its limits,” Mesgaran said.

Water-guzzling industries such as oil and gas have also been built in Iran’s arid and semi-arid regions, adding to the pressure in already fragile areas.

Swelling urban populations have increased demand, too. The situation is exacerbated by aging infrastructure. “An estimated 30% of treated drinking water is lost through old, leaky distribution systems, and there’s very little water recycling,” Mesgaran said.

On top of all these problems is the climate crisis. “The house was on fire because of mismanagement, and then climate change … is adding fuel,” Madani said.

Iran is now in its sixth consecutive year of drought, which is now at a scale, intensity and duration that “is unprecedented in modern times,” Madani said.

The conditions driving it — low rainfall and soaring temperatures — would not have been possible without human-caused climate change, according to a recent analysis by World Weather Attribution network.

For people in Tehran, it’s an anxious wait. There was hope fall would bring much-needed rains but, aside from a few isolated bursts, they have failed to arrive.

Authorities say there isn’t formal water rationing, but residents report reduced water pressure. Sometimes the taps run dry for periods of time.

Government communication with the public has been fragmented and inconsistent, Madani said, leading to high levels of mistrust and flourishing conspiracy theories, including the idea that foreign powers are modifying Iran’s weather and stealing clouds.

Evacuation seems a remote possibility, despite the president’s words. “Where would people even go?” Mesgaran asked. “The country is facing one of its worst economic situations, and most households simply can’t afford such a move.”

Temporary evacuations may be more likely. In the summer, authorities announced emergency public holidays to persuade people to leave the city. “If you have only days or weeks of water left, even saving for a few hours can make a huge difference,” Madani said.

The government has also tried cloud seeding, where particles are injected into clouds to draw out rain or snow. There is little scientific consensus on how well this works, however. “It’s a good solution for desperate governments to just show that they’re taking action,” Madani said.

To really tackle the long-term crisis means widespread reform, including diversifying the economy away from water-intensive sectors like farming, experts say. This, however, is likely to be extremely unpopular and could cause big unemployment problems.

For now, officials are pinning their hopes on — and directing prayers toward — the arrival of rain. “In the past, people would go out to the desert to pray for rain,” said Mehdi Chamran, head of Tehran’s City Council, according to a Reuters report citing state media. “Perhaps we should not neglect that tradition.”

The situation is so acute, however, that even if the rains come, it’s unlikely to be enough. “Nature is now imposing hard limits,” AghaKouchak said. Aquifers that have been drained will not rebound and ecosystems that collapse cannot quickly be restored.

The longer the government waits to make meaningful reforms, the fewer options remain, he added. “The water crisis is not only an environmental issue; it is increasingly intertwined with Iran’s social and political future.”

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