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Weather pattern may add more challenges for western US fire crews

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Aug 25, 2021 4:34 PM EDT

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Although firefighters battling the dozens of blazes in the western United States will not have to contend with extreme temperatures in the near future, a pattern featuring meager amounts of rainfall and varying winds can add further challenges on the ground.

The latest numbers from the National Interagency Fire Center show that 92 large fires actively burning across the U.S. have charred over 2.5 million acres. The states of Montana, Idaho and Washington account for almost five dozen of these blazes, with California and Oregon ranking fourth and fifth in terms of the number of active large fires.

This image shows active large wildfires in the western United States as of Wednesday, Aug. 25, 2021.

Fires in Northern California have forced the evacuation of more than 42,000 residents and prompted the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region to temporarily close nine national forests through Sept. 6.

“We do not take this decision lightly and understand how this impacts people who enjoy recreating on the National Forests. These temporary closures are necessary to ensure public and firefighter safety, as well as reduce the potential for new fire starts. I want to thank the public for your patience during this challenging situation," Regional Forester Jennifer Eberlien said.

One of the biggest fires is the Caldor Fire in Northern California. The blaze has burned more than 126,000 acres since Aug.14, and is "knocking on the door to the Lake Tahoe basin,” Thom Porter, the fire chief for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said according to The New York Times. The fire has destroyed more than 600 residential and commercial structures.

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AccuWeather's meteorologists, who have been actively monitoring the weather pattern for signs of relief in the West, say that Mother Nature will do little to assist fire crews in gaining the upper hand.

The weather pattern into the weekend is expected to feature a persistent southward dip in the jet stream across the Northwestern states, which will allow several storm systems to move across the area. These storms are expected to produce little in the way of rainfall and kick up potentially troublesome winds in their path.

"Strong, changing wind will occur with and behind these disturbances, creating much more difficulty in fighting wildfires in Northern California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

Containment lines may be breached and wildfire behavior could turn erratic and dangerous for front-line firefighters due to the bouts of gusty winds. New fires could ignite and spread rapidly in any serious wind event.

The wind will also carry wildfire smoke hundreds of miles away from its origin, leading to hazy conditions all the way to the northern Plains this week.

The worst air quality and greatest concern for health impacts are expected to be closet to the wildfire centers. Residents and visitors can check their local air quality index on the free AccuWeather app or on city forecast pages on AccuWeather.com.

Do we spy a little clearing to the northwest behind the smoke layer this evening? Some improvement in the AQ for north and northwest side of Reno/Sparks, but still registering unhealthy-hazardous to the south through Carson/Minden/SLT/Incline. https://t.co/YZGiBS1emn pic.twitter.com/54JzNGjR9U

— NWS Reno (@NWSReno) August 25, 2021

In northwestern Nevada, where air quality was very unhealthy to dangerous Monday, the Washoe County Air Quality Management Division advised people to keep their indoor air as clean as possible by not using vacuums or candles and avoiding any cooking that generates smoke.

Air quality levels were very unhealthy to dangerous across portions of California and Nevada early Wednesday morning, Aug. 25, 2021. (Plume Labs/AccuWeather)

Forecasters say that with the little amount of moisture expected with each storm system, another hazard could result.

There is the possibility of additional fires igniting due to dry thunderstorms forming, according to Pastelok.

Dry thunderstorms produce dangerous lightning strikes but fail to produce much, if any, rainfall. The higher elevations of the interior Northwest will be at the greatest risk for these storms.

On the positive side, the active storm track will bring a slight boost in humidity levels and help to keep extreme heat at bay -- both factors which are on the side of fire crews.

SEE ALSO:

Weather News California lake becomes pool for air pollution during wildfire season
'Gates of Hell' crater has burned in remote desert for 50 years
Bible found opened to Psalm 106 and 107 one of few objects to survive deadliest fire in US history

AccuWeather's long-range team expects a warmup to occur in the Northwest during the last days of August.

"Fighting wildfires can be tough enough, but to throw in persistent high heat can make it very intense for most," Pastelok said.

The good news is that any warmup should be brief as the jet stream is expected to take another dip to the south heading into the first days of September. Still, forecasters say that no meaningful rainfall is in sight.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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