Thunderstorms, hottest days of the year possible for Northeast
AccuWeather meteorologists say conditions will dry out through the weekend after more wet weather impacts the region on Friday.
A spike in heat could produce some of the highest temperatures of the summer so far in the Northeast toward the end of the week, AccuWeather forecasters say. The surge in warmth will accompany a much-needed drying-out period after the region was bombarded by frequent slow-moving and moisture-packed storms over the past month.
Following bone-dry conditions from May to early June, not only has rainfall been well above the historical average — in some cases two to four times that of normal — but it also has been raining much more often than average. As a result, there has been an improvement in drought conditions in several Northeastern states, even as deadly flooding has occurred.
In this region, it tends to rain once every three or four days in the summertime on average. However, since June 15, it has been raining once every other day and preventing the soil from drying out.
The frequent wet conditions have been helping to hold daytime temperatures back and limiting the number of days where temperatures hit levels that are above historical averages. Most locations from the central Great Lakes to the coastal Northeast have not set a single daily high-temperature record since June 1. This is in contrast to the lengthy stretch of blistering heat in the Southwest and the ongoing steamy weather in much of the Southeast.
In fact, parts of the Northeast, temperatures have been averaging 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit below historical levels since June 1.
Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the early part of the week, with wet weather expected on Monday and perhaps again on Tuesday. As with previous rounds of rain, showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread across the region in the afternoon and evenings.
There may still be a couple of pockets where thunderstorms unload heavy rainfall from Monday to Tuesday. This could bring localized flooding, especially from portions of Upstate New York and eastern Pennsylvania southward into Virginia's Tidewater region. Any location that misses out on the rainfall can expect above-normal high temperatures.
After this, however, many places in the Northeast will finally get a break from frequent rounds of heavy rain, flooding and severe thunderstorms, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
A subtle change in the pattern began over the weekend, but will finally take hold starting on Tuesday. This will promote longer stretches of dry weather and eventually lead to an uptick in daytime temperatures.
"Following thunderstorms and perhaps localized severe weather on Monday into Tuesday, heat will gradually build from Wednesday to next weekend," Lundberg said.
"As the pattern evolves and the week progresses, temperatures will push into the 90s in a number of locations, especially in the major metro areas," Lundberg added.
Some cities may record their highest temperatures of the summer. The wet pattern over the past month or so has kept temperatures from soaring into the upper 90s across the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast.
The hottest it has been in New York City was when the mercury hit 93 F on July 5. Washington, D.C., peaked at 94 F on June 2 and July 13.
Heat has been even less common just west of the Appalachians. The highest the temperature has reached in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Detroit this year is 90 degrees.
"As heat from the western United States builds over the Plains early this week, a brief surge of heat will have eyes for the Great Lakes and Atlantic Seaboard later in the week," Lundberg said.
Depending on how much warmth is able to spill over the Appalachians and how quickly the landscape dries out, some locations could make a run at the upper 90s to near 100 for a day along part of the I-95 corridor.
Any spike in extreme heat is likely to be brief, as meteorological data suggest another change in the weather pattern will usher cooler air into the Northeast by the start of August, Lundberg said.
The arrival of a cold front as July comes to an end could be accompanied by severe weather.
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