Temperature roller coaster; 'Game of chance' for showers in Northeast
Temperature swings will keep people on their toes, while the mainly dry conditions will be good for outdoor plans and pose some risk for brush fires.
Drought conditions are intensifying fire season across the country, with experts urging residents to stay vigilant and take steps to protect their homes. Learn what precautions you can take to reduce fire risks and safeguard your property.
Conditions in the northeastern United States will be like an atmospheric amusement park with a bit of a temperature roller coaster and a game of chance for showers to break the dry streak, as the stakes are in record territory for some, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
There have been bigger day-to-day temperature swings in the autumn—sometimes by 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit—so the ongoing weather pattern will not be one of those blockbuster giant swings. However, dressing for the weather will require some skill, especially for those who wait at bus stops, walk to work or school, or spend extra time outdoors.
Warmth well above the historical average dominated conditions during the first half of this week in the Appalachians with highs from the 70s to 80s.
By Thursday, a cooler air mass more typical for late October moved into the region, with highs ranging from the 50s in the mountains to the 60s along the Atlantic coast.
Thereafter, the hilly part of the roller coaster ride will begin with the temperature up a few degrees for a day or two, then down, and so on as fronts swing through.
A multiple-day warmup is likely to follow early next week, but likely not quite as significant as the warmth and duration that finished up Wednesday. Temperatures may still fight their way back into the 70s and 80s, especially where the ground stays dry.
Rainfall in the coming week will be a game of chance
Shower activity in the coming days will be a game of chance, especially along the New England coast and from the central Appalachians on the east and south.
Each front, or weak storm that swings through, will bring a chance of spotty rain or a brief shower. However, the rainfall is likely to be light and sporadic with some locations remaining bone-dry into the first week of November.
A lack of strong storm systems and Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture will continue to starve the atmosphere of opportunities for rainfall in the short and long term in the Northeast.
Some systems will swing through, but they will likely struggle to bring widespread soaking rain. Some places may be missed entirely by enough rain to soak the ground for perhaps a couple of weeks ahead of any pattern change later in November.
Philadelphia, New York City, and other cities are on pace for not only their driest October on record but also their driest month ever since records have been kept, dating back well into the 1800s. In Philadelphia, the driest months ever were October 1963 and 1924, with 0.09 of an inch. In New York City, the driest month was June 1949, with 0.02 of an inch. Neither Philadelphia or New York City have had a drop of rain so far in October, as of Thursday.
Both Trenton and the Atlantic City Marina have never had a drier 60-day period. Records date back more than 150 years to 1865 in Trenton and 1873 in Atlantic City. Recently, several cities have been added to the 60-day driest-ever list that extends back to mid-August.
The ongoing dry conditions, combined with falling leaves and grass trending increasingly dormant, will raise the risk of bushfire ignition and rapid spread during windy conditions. Experts urge extreme caution when using outdoor power equipment, avoiding sparks and to not toss burning cigarettes on the ground.
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