River flooding to persist for days, weeks following ‘1-in-1,000-year’ rain event
As waters recede along small streams and secondary rivers, flooding is just getting underway along the largest rivers and related problems may last well into the spring.
Sima Merick of the Ohio Emergency Management Agency provides the latest updates on cities in her state impacted by severe flooding along the Ohio River Valley as of April 10.
Torrential rains have long since ended over the Tennessee, Ohio and Mississippi river basins, but runoff from the 8-16 inches of rain that fell over just a few days will continue to surge into the largest rivers and lead to moderate to major flooding that could persist to nearly the end of April in some cases, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.
The combination of severe weather and flooding has claimed the lives of at least 23 people, including young children, since late last week.
This image shows the rainfall return period due to days of persistent downpours from early April.
The amount of rain that fell over a four-day stretch was rare, with a likelihood of occurring once every 100 to 1,000 years over a broad area, based on the historical average. This does not mean that a similar flood cannot occur again for a long time, as people in Kentucky and other areas in the Ohio Valley witnessed in February.
A basic physical formula exists in the world of weather. As global oceans continue to warm, more moisture will be released into the atmosphere, which can potentially fuel bigger storms with torrential rain more often.
"AccuWeather experts estimate that the economic loss from the severe weather and flooding in recent days in the middle of the nation is between $80 billion and $90 billion," said Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. "Unless property owners have specific flood insurance, losses and repairs will most likely not be covered by standard policies."
As of Wednesday morning, 24 river gauge sites were at major flood stage, and 122 locations across the central U.S. were at or above flood stage, spanning multiple rivers and tributaries.
Bill Jones rides his boat through a flooded neighborhood near the Kentucky River on Sunday, April 6, 2025, in Frankfort, Kentucky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)
"The Kentucky River at Frankford Lock, Kentucky, crested just under the all-time record of 48.47 feet. Records at the location along the river date back to at least the early 1800s," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said.
In Kentucky alone, more than 500 roads were closed due to high water this past weekend. Many roads in the region remain closed at midweek due to high water or pending inspection by officials for safety concernts.
Water levels on the small streams and most secondary rivers will begin to drop in the coming days. However, the number of locations on the largest rivers — such as the lower portion of the Ohio and lower Mississippi — will reach a major flood stage. A crest is not expected on the lower end of the Mississippi until late in the third week or during the fourth week of April.
A general rule also exists for river systems. The larger the river and flatter the terrain, the longer the flood cycle lasts. This has much to do with the volume of water the largest rivers handle and the speed at which the water flows downstream.
Some roads may be closed for an extended period, which could isolate some communities.
At multiple points along the Mississippi River— including near its confluence with the Ohio River — water levels are projected to remain at high moderate to major flood stage for a 10- to 14-day period this April. As the surge slowly works downstream, moderate to major flood levels are not projected to occur in parts of the Mississippi Delta region until around the third and fourth weeks of the month.
Water spilling into unprotected areas along the river, including farmland, could remain for several weeks. Even after floodwaters recede, some fields may remain inaccessible to equipment needed for plowing and planting.
The high water levels and fast flow on the Mississippi River will force reductions in tug and barge operations. Tugboats will not be able to push as many barges in a single run to maintain safe navigation.
In areas where flooding has occurred or where waters begin to recede, property owners will face major cleanup challenges, including mud removal and mold damage. Water supplies may be contaminated by chemicals or bacteria and will need to be boiled or tested before use.
Some weakened structures may collapse without notice, and jagged debris can also cause injuries. People involved in cleanup operations should ensure their tetanus immunizations or boosters are up to date. Wild animals, including snakes, may have been displaced by the flooding and could pose a danger.
There is some good news in terms of weather for much of the region.
The weather pattern will shut off the flow of Gulf moisture into the weekend, reducing the risk of relentless rain and violent thunderstorms. While showers or thunderstorms with brief gusty winds and hail are forecast, little overall rainfall is expected across much of the middle and lower Mississippi and Ohio valleys through the upcoming weekend at least. Where downpours occur, they will tend to be brief and not contribute substantially to river levels. Some quick rises can occur on small streams as the ground remains nearly saturated.
However, periodic cold conditions can hinder cleanup efforts into the weekend. Parts of the region also face the risk of frosts and freezes, which could damage blossoming and early planting.
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