Rain to sneak into part of mid-Atlantic during Memorial Day weekend
A dip in the jet stream will send temperatures 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit below historical averages and bring the risk of a frost or freeze to parts of the Northeast this week.
A Memorial Day weekend washout is not in the forecast for most of the Northeast, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some weather disruptions at times, especially in the mid-Atlantic, AccuWeather forecasters say. A slight shift in the weather pattern is likely to take place, allowing some rain and stormy conditions to spread northward from the southern United States beginning Saturday.
Prior to the start of the weekend, there will also be a chance for a frost and freeze to occur in the interior and northern areas of the Northeast.
A southward dip in the jet stream has persisted in recent weeks over the Northeast. This pattern tends to cut off the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean but can generate periodic and sporadic shower activity, meteorologists say.
Rain and dry air to battle for supremacy in Northeast
A brief pattern change is setting up for this weekend that will put the Northeast on the edge between dry and sunny conditions across the north and cloudy and wet conditions across the south. Any slight change in that pattern could cause clouds and rain to overspread much of the region or keep the moisture pent up to the Southeast states and allow drier conditions to dominate in the Northeast.
"The key will be at the jet stream level of the atmosphere and exactly where areas of high pressure and a storm system set up," AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicole LoBiondo said.
If the jet stream storm sets up farther to the north, it would open the door for moisture to stream in from the Atlantic. If the high pressure area remains strong, it will likely suppress the storm and keep its moisture over areas farther south. Because both systems have not fully formed yet, the upcoming exact dividing line between the rain and dry air may shift.
As of Thursday morning, AccuWeather meteorologists believe there will be three different types of weather across parts of the eastern U.S. this upcoming weekend.
“In the first zone, from the Carolinas to southern Virginia, confidence is high that it will be wet and cool for most of the weekend,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer said.
Wimer added that in the second zone, from around Washington, D.C. to western Maryland and West Virginia, some rain will be possible at times this weekend, especially in the latter part.
Mainly dry weather is expected for the holiday weekend in a third zone that extends across most of New England and central and northern New York state and northern Pennsylvania.
Since this past weekend, the forecast has been trending drier for the Northeast in general.
"There is the potential for the Southern system, which could acquire tropical characteristics, to get trapped over the lower part of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dean DeVore said. "For now at least, the Memorial Day weekend looks to be dry in New York City and Boston."
Stormy conditions may develop at some mid-Atlantic beaches
At the beaches, conditions may remain dry and tranquil much of the weekend in New England and for the first part of the weekend on Long Island, New York. Farther south, especially from the Delmarva Peninsula to North Carolina, conditions will become windier and wetter, if not downright stormy from the Virginia Capes to areas farther south.
In these more southern areas of the region, seas will build and rough surf may keep people out of the water, even when it is not raining. How dangerous conditions become may depend on if a tropical storm forms near the Carolina coast.
More frost, freezes upcoming for the interior Northeast
The same pattern that is producing the dry weather in the Northeast is also helping to promote chilly air at night.
A fresh batch of chilly air will invade the Northeast during the second half of this week. While the leading edge of the cool air caused some showers to develop Wednesday, temperatures are likely to dip to freezing by Thursday morning over the northern parts of New York and New England. A breeze may prevent damaging frost from occurring.
However, a second wave of chilly air will follow late Thursday night to Friday morning.
Since winds are likely to be light this night, there is a greater risk of significant frost for northern New York and New England by Friday morning. Patchy frost capable of causing some damage could occur as far south as northern Pennsylvania and in the Hudson Valley, located north of New York City.
Despite the upcoming pair of chilly nights, temperatures are not likely to dip to the extremely low levels of late last week. Temperatures in many areas of the interior northeast dropped into the 20s and lower 30s with a few locations plunging into the teens. Vineyards in New York's famous Finger Lakes region suffered major damage as several hours of heavy frost destroyed much of this season's emerging growth.
More rain is needed, despite holiday plans
Most of the population would probably prefer not to have rain ruin their holiday weekend plans. However, should this weekend's rain fail to overspread much of the region, it could be several more weeks before there is some relief from the long-term dry conditions, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
"The pattern favors more fast-moving cold fronts that drop in from central Canada and sweep off the Atlantic coast in the Northeast into at least mid-June," Pastelok said. Most of these fronts may bring brief showers or thunderstorms but not drenching rainfall over longer durations.
Aside from this past weekend's storm that drenched much of New England and coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic with 1–4 inches of rain, soil conditions have turned drier over the past couple of weeks, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor report that was issued on Thursday, May 18.
A new drought monitor report will be released to the public Thursday, May 25.
While rain is not as critical as during the heart of the growing season, a decent amount of soil moisture is needed to get seeds to germinate and young plants to fully develop, experts say.
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