Ozark Mountains to Tennessee at risk for dangerous flooding Memorial Day weekend
Torrential downpours during the extended Memorial Day weekend may do much more than hamper outdoor plans in part of the central United States. A life-threatening flash flood emergency could evolve.
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A popular vacation area will face drenching rain and thunderstorms throughout Memorial Day weekend, with inches of rain raising the risk of dangerous flash flooding, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
While some gaps in the downpours will occur, there is the potential for a foot of rain in some locations in total, with a few inches of rain per hour in some instances from parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma to central Tennessee through Memorial Day.
As the ground quickly becomes saturated, runoff will increase exponentially, leading to sudden rises on small streams and surges along area rivers. A wall of water may blast through narrow valleys, which are popular destinations for campers and summer homes in the Ozark Mountains. Small babbling brooks can become raging torrents of water in a matter of a few minutes.
People are strongly urged to avoid setting up camp in low-lying areas along small streams in this zone this weekend, due to the flash flood danger that could evolve into a life-threatening emergency.
"Rainfall since early April in much of the highlighted flood threat zone has received 150 to 200% of their historical average," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said. "This means that the ground is either saturated or close to being saturated, and runoff will rapidly escalate given the anticipated downpour pattern."
Memphis, Tennessee, has picked up 20.52 inches of rain from April 1 to May 21, which is more than 10 inches above the historical average. Springfield, Missouri, has amassed nearly 15 inches of rain, compared to a normal of 8.66 inches for the period. Fort Smith, Arkansas, was only about an inch below Springfield's total for the 51-day stretch.
Low-water crossings, which are common in this zone, could be dangerous due to existing high water or the potential for streams to rise suddenly while attempting to drive through.
Along with the likelihood of flash flooding in the Ozarks, rapid flooding in urban areas can occur with significant ponding on some area highways that drain poorly.
Near and south and west of the flood risk zone, severe thunderstorms will be on the prowl through the Memorial Day weekend. By early next week, the likelihood of torrential downpours and the risk of flash flooding may extend into parts of the southern Appalachians and perhaps the zone still in recovery mode following Hurricane Helene from last September.
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