November-like chill in Northeast to be erased by warm weekend
Don't wax the skis yet! The clock is ticking on a November-like weather pattern with much warmer conditions and sunshine on tap just in time for the weekend in the Northeast.
Snow covered the mountains of North Carolina on the morning of Oct. 16.
Conditions more typical of the middle of November will persist in the northeastern United States into Thursday. Following the cold winds, chaotic rain showers and even pockets of snow, a marked turnaround is in store just in time for the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
This image, captured on Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 15, 2024, shows the chaotic cloud cover created by cold air in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. The pattern depicts true intervals of clouds and sunshine at ground level with passing rain (and snow) showers. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Temperatures into Wednesday ran 8-15 degrees below the historical average for the middle of October," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said, "That translates to highs in the low to middle 40s over the higher elevations and the 50s along much of Interstate 95, except for the low 60s in eastern Virginia."
A pocket of chilly air high in the atmosphere, which is much colder than near the ground, created areas of clouds and stirred up gusty winds from Monday to Wednesday.
The combination of cold air and breezes produced AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the 30s over the interior Northeast and mainly in the 40s closer to the Atlantic coast.
Spotty showers accompanied the cold air, and they were enhanced by the warm water from the Great Lakes which added moisture to the air.
Where the air has been cold enough, snow or a mixture of rain and wet snow has fallen, mainly over the higher elevations from West Virginia to Maine. Several inches to a foot of snow has fallen on some of the highest elevations in the northern parts of New York and New England.
As high pressure settles in and brings a mainly clear sky and light winds later this week, frosts and freezes will become more extensive during the late-night and early-morning hours.
The pattern will bring an end to the growing season for much of the Midwest and the interior Northeast by the time warmer air arrives this weekend.
Temperatures to flip starting Friday
A big dip in the jet stream will be replaced by a large area of high pressure.
While the look and feel of the outdoors into Thursday will seem like the weather jumped forward in time by a full month, it will jump back by about a month for the weekend, with temperatures more on par for the middle of September.
Widespread highs in the 70s are in store with some northern tier and mountain areas to max out in the upper 60s. Some locations will even reach the low 80s as the pattern continues next week.
"The upcoming pattern, beginning on Friday, will lead to day after day of sunshine with a steady day-to-day warmup in temperatures that is likely to last into at least early next week," Dombek said.
Conditions this weekend will be delightful by October standards for attending ballgames, going for an autumn walk, playing a round of golf, or just enjoying some time outdoors.
Long-running dry spell to continue
The generally enjoyable weather will come at a cost. October has gotten off to an incredibly dry start, and in some cases, it has never been this dry so far into the month, Dombek said.
"It has been bone-dry in recent weeks in many parts of the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia," Dombek added, "And no significant rain is on the way anytime soon."
Prior to this year, Philadelphia's previous driest start in October was in 1940, when there was no measurable rain of 0.01 of an inch or greater through the 14th. Oct. 15, 1940, brought 0.33 of an inch to Philadelphia, snapping the streak. The dry streak continues this year and may last for many more days.
It's a similar story for New York City, with this year replacing the driest start on record for October. The prior dry start to the month was a tie with 1914 and 1974 through the 14th. Both years brought significant rain on the 15th. This year, the streak with no measurable rain may continue well into next week in New York's Central Park.
The dry ground will allow the mid- to late-October sun to focus its energy on heating the air, which may cause temperatures to surge during the afternoon hours in the region. For a few hours, it may feel quite warm in the sun.
Some parts of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions could stay dry through the remainder of October.
"While dry conditions are not as much of a problem regarding agriculture this time of year, it could lead to an enhanced wildfire concern," Dombek cautioned.
The problem may be compounded where leaves have fallen, and care should be taken with outdoor power equipment, outdoor grills, with burning cigarettes, and if parking vehicles in non-paved or gravel locations. The hot exhaust from vehicles can easily ignite flattened cornstalks, leaves and tall grasses in makeshift parking areas.
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