Florida gains "protection" from tropical trouble in the Caribbean but at a cost
Stiff winds blowing from the Atlantic will cause some problems, but also countermand tropical threats in Florida at the same time for the next week or more.
As recovery efforts continue from Helene and Milton throughout the Southeast, here’s a breakdown of how this week’s weather will affect everyone involved.
Mother Nature is stepping in to help protect Florida from close encounters with tropical storms over the next week as east to northeast winds kick up. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say the protection will come at cost along Florida's Atlantic coast as winds cause waters to surge.
Winds from the northwest were pushing water away from the Atlantic coast into midweek, but that is beginning to change.
The stiff winds are being produced by a massive area of high pressure that is just beginning to build in the eastern United States.
This will be responsible for the cool conditions and low humidity over much of the Southeast states into the weekend. Many locations in the northern and central parts of Florida as well as the mainland areas of the Southeast will have their lowest temperatures since April.
As this high drifts eastward over the next week, it will help warm up the East, but much of the time, winds will blow from the Atlantic and onshore over the Florida Peninsula. The wind shift will ramp up into Friday.
The protection
The high pressure and breezes around it will be so strong and vast that any tropical systems attempting to move toward the southeastern U.S. would be disrupted and likely break apart. Meteorologists refer to such breezes as wind shear.
A tropical rainstorm will track near or just north of the northeastern and north-central islands of the Caribbean into early next week with potentially dangerous flooding and damaging winds, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
"However, this storm will likely either be shunted away from Florida, forced to lose wind intensity or possibly diminish while attempting to approach the state," DaSilva stated.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms trying to form over the western Caribbean will be forced westward across Central America rather than be allowed to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
If the rainstorm forecast to track near the northern Caribbean islands strengthens, it would be able to alter or overcome the wind shear and travel much farther to the northwest and become a problem. While it could evolve into a full-blown tropical storm, there is no indication the system will undergo rapid and long-lasting intensification.
The cost
Persistent breezes from the northeast will cause rough surf, produce tides higher than astronomical levels and trigger coastal flooding and beach erosion. Frequent and strong rip currents will occur.
The strength of the wind will vary each day as will the magnitude of the problems. Because the pattern will last for many days, water will tend to build up in the back bays and tidal rivers in the region. This could put some beaches, walkways and roads underwater.
"Cities such as Miami, which are prone to flooding in certain high tide situations, will likely experience significant overwash and street flooding," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Water levels may surge to 2-3 feet above astronomical levels at times along the Florida Atlantic coast and 1-2 feet above routine levels in coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas, where some beach erosion is possible and rough surf is anticipated.
Toward the end of the month, the east-northeast winds, with their coastal problems and tropical protection, will ease but may not totally go away.
Ongoing conditions
The breeze originating from the Atlantic will also pick up moisture and cause periodic showers to sweep west to east across the peninsula. A few showers may grow into brief, gusty thundershowers by the time they reach the central and western parts of the peninsula.
A USPS worker inspects trucks that had been relocated to protect them from the wind but which went underwater as intense rain from Hurricane Milton caused the Anclote River to flood, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in New Port Richey, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
Because of their swift-moving nature, the showers can sneak up on workers involved in cleanup and repair operations following Milton.
Not enough rain will fall from the showers to factor into ongoing river flooding in the central part of the peninsula.
While some rivers are receding, other slow-moving streams, such as the St. Johns, Haw and Withlacoochee, will remain well above flood stage for many days to weeks following the 1-2 feet of rain that fell on the region.
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