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Monsoon low to drench parts of northeast India this week

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jun 16, 2020 5:25 PM EDT

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Streets in Milnrow, England, were underwater on June 15, after heavy rain triggered flash flooding in the area.

The southwest monsoon has been advancing across India since it first arrived to start the month of June, ushering in the wet season across much of the country. After soaking parts of central India last week, how far will the monsoon advance in the coming days?

As of Thursday, the leading edge of the southwest monsoon remains stalled across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, according to the India Meteorological Department. The monsoon may remain stalled there until next week when it finally surges into northwestern India.

Early this week, the pattern will shift as a monsoon low forms in northeastern India, according to AccuWeather's Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

This low will promote drenching downpours across portions of northeast India. Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. The southwest coast can also receive heavier rain due to moisture coming from the Arabian Sea.

Elsewhere across central and southern India, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue.

A zone of drier weather may be found from western Madhya Pradesh, across Telangana and into southern Andhra Pradesh; however, even in these areas, isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out.

The most widespread heavy downpours from the monsoon low are expected across Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh and northern Chhattisgarh. These areas are expected to see rain totals reach 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) through the first half of the week.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 400 mm (16 inches) is possible and will increase the risk for flash flooding across these areas.

In addition to flooding, any thunderstorm that develops can bring the risk of downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.

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After remaining nearly stationary through the weekend, this monsoon low will begin to drift to the west on Monday. As this happens, the leading edge of the monsoon will begin to advance more rapidly once again.

"By the second half of the week, the monsoon is expected to finally reach Delhi as it continues to advance farther across northwestern India," added Nicholls.

A secondary zone of heavy rain is expected from southwestern Maharashtra to Kerala where moisture from the Arabian Sea will lead to downpours totaling 75-150 mm (3-6 inches), with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 250 mm (10 inches).

This region has received heavy rain recently and the persistent rain could lead to flooding and mudslides in some locations.

Related:

India Weather Homepage
AccuWeather’s 2020 Asia summer forecast
Widespread, severe flooding forces over 200,000 from homes in southern China

Since the arrival and advancement of the monsoon through the beginning of June, about 50-200 mm (2-8 inches) of rain has fallen across central and northeastern India. Though isolated areas have seen upwards of 300 mm (12 inches).

Along the western coast, more than 500 mm (20 inches) of rain has been reported in some areas thanks in part to Cyclone Nisarga, which made landfall in western India earlier in the month.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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AccuWeather Weather Forecasts Monsoon low to drench parts of northeast India this week
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