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Millions to bask in abnormal warmth for this time of year

By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Published Dec 13, 2021 10:35 AM EDT | Updated Dec 14, 2021 9:17 PM EDT

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Winter is just around the corner, but for a large part of the country, a heat wave unfolding this week will make it feel more like spring or summer.

While astronomical winter doesn't begin until Dec. 21, cold weather typically takes control well before that. However, temperatures in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit were recorded across the Plains at the end of last week, including places like Kansas City, Missouri, and Denver, Colorado, where the average high temperature is only in the middle 40s.

Other locations, such as Wisconsin and Minnesota, had snow falling just last week, with up to 21 inches accumulating in St. Paul, Minnesota. The coming warmup in these areas could be quite a shock to the system, quickly melting most or all of the snow.

"Tens of millions of Americans are set to spend the final days of fall basking in a December heat wave that will send temperatures soaring as high as 30 or even 40 degrees above normal in the days ahead," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a heat wave as a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. This won't be any ordinary heat wave either, as countless cities are poised to break daily records this week, and at least a handful of those could break monthly records as well.

"While daily record highs should certainly fall, all-time record highs for the month of December are also going to be threatened, if not obliterated, on Wednesday across a rather large swath of the center of the country," said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton.

Madison, Wisconsin, will be one of these cities. The temperature in Madison has never risen above 65 in December as long as records have been kept. On Wednesday, that may no longer be the case as AccuWeather forecasters say it's likely the city could soar into the middle to upper 60s even as clouds and possibly sprinkles of rain dominate the sky.

To the southwest, Wichita, Kansas, has no record of ever reaching the 80s in December, but that could be about to change as the city is forecast to hit the upper 70s on Wednesday as gusty winds blow through the area. Kansas City, Missouri, is in a similar boat as Wichita, and a high temperature above 74 F would immediately set December's record. Forecasters expect the high to near 80 there midweek. Des Moines, Iowa, and Omaha, Nebraska, are also on the list of cities that could set all-time December highs on Wednesday.

While Minneapolis isn't forecast to set any monthly records, Wednesday's expected high in the mid-50s would break the daily Dec. 15 record of 51 F set in 2014 and put the city well above its average high temperature of 29. Chicago could also break its Dec. 15 record of 64 F from 1971 on Wednesday as temperatures are predicted to peak in the lower to mid-60s. Other major cities expected to approach or even surpass records this week include Denver, Dallas and St. Louis.

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"On Dec. 3, St. Louis matched its all-time high mark for the month with a 76-degree reading, a temperature first recorded on Dec. 15, 1948," said Sosnowski.

Wednesday will likely give the city another chance to break the record with temperatures expected to soar into the lower to mid-70s.

"Skiing enthusiasts may want to hit the slopes before the snow melts away in the central Appalachians and Upper Midwest or before ideal snow-making conditions slip away in the coming days," warned Sosnowski.

Forecasters suggest that high winds are partially responsible for the heat wave.

"With exceptionally strong winds pulling unusually warm air northward in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, it is not out of the question that this could go down as a historic, albeit brief, heat event," said Thornton. Another important element in this event will be the northward retreat of the jet stream over the Central and Eastern states.

Gusty winds will move across the center of the United States from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning, largely from southwest to northeast, gusting the highest in places like Denver and Omaha, Nebraska. Later on Wednesday, a storm is expected to develop in the Plains, bringing locally severe weather to Des Moines, Iowa, and Kansas City as well as trimming back the warmth.

The unseasonable and record-breaking warmth won't stop there. As warm air shifts into the Northeast later in the week, highly-populated Northeast areas like New York City and Philadelphia could have temperatures challenge records on Thursday.

"Temperatures could even feel like late summer at times through the third week of December, the last full week of fall," said Sosnowski. High temperatures could climb into the 50s, 60s and perhaps even the 70s this week.

This pattern doesn't spell good fortune for a white Christmas in many locations this year, and NOAA released an update to its white Christmas climatology last Friday. In some locations, chances for a white Christmas have dropped by as much as 10%, according to the new 30-year averages released by NOAA.

More to see:

New 'normal' reshaping white Christmas chances across US
Next storm for central US set to deliver damaging winds
Peak of Geminid meteor shower could produce colorful light show
How the multi-state December tornado outbreak formed

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.

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