Is there any more rain coming soon for the Northeast to ease drought, fire danger?
The Northeast received the heaviest rain in over a month this past weekend, and it may not be long before more downpours spread across part of the parched region. However, some areas will be missed again and again.
Fires continue to rage amid dry conditions in New Jersey and New York, but the rain that will make it through most of Pennsylvania on Nov. 14 will peter out before it can get to the burning areas.
A storm that snagged just a bit of tropical moisture brought rain to many areas in the Northeast from Sunday to Sunday night; this is the heaviest rain some areas have seen in well over a month. While the upcoming pattern will bring more opportunities for rain, there is no definitive drought-buster on the weather maps just yet, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The rain this past weekend snapped the dry spell that lasted weeks in the region. It also dampened the fallen leaves, dried brush and topsoil and, in effect, knocked down the brush fire risk temporarily. It will help firefighters battling existing blazes and reduce the chance of quick ignition of new fires for several hours to perhaps a few days.
The biggest rain fell from the central Appalachians and western slopes to part of the mid-Atlantic. Only a few tenths of an inch of rain fell on portions of New England, which received the lightest amounts from Sunday to Sunday night.
"Dry air and breezes, even with cooler conditions, soon dries out the brush and allows the fire potential to increase all over again," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson said.
What the region needs is a massive soaking rainstorm or a regular cadence of smaller storms. There has been some indication of a big storm on the horizon, but for now, the idea of a potential widespread rainstorm in the coastal Northeast seems weak.
There will be some storms that affect the region this week and the next.
"But while that more active pattern will bring some opportunities for rain this week, it does not guarantee that every spot will get enough rain to keep the fire potential at bay," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said, "Some locations could go at least a full week without a drop of rain."
That dry zone could end up from near New York City through southwestern New England.
The next chance of rain will come Thursday in portions of the Northeast when a front from the Midwest arrives--perhaps with a bit of tropical moisture.
It will take considerable time to fully end the wildfire risk as well as get enough moisture back into the watersheds to restore streams, reservoirs and ponds to historically average levels.
"There's a chance it won't rain everywhere from the Thursday opportunity," Feerick said.
The same storm could bring a period of wet snow to parts of the higher terrain in West Virginia, western Maryland and western Pennsylvania.
Even though the rain that fell from Sunday to Sunday night was drenching in some cases, the topsoil quickly absorbed the rain rather than let it run off into waterways of any great consequence.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect that the same storm that helped to bring some rain to much of the Northeast from Sunday to Sunday night will stall just offshore and back westward toward the end of the week.
While the intensity of the rain (and wet snow) has yet to be determined, it will likely bring at least some rain to northern, eastern and central New England from Friday to Saturday. Wet snow will likely be confined to the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
The storm forecast to move backward over New England will also have a back edge, so that rain and wet snow will not reach everywhere. Just as the Thursday storm misses the New York City area and southwestern New England, the Friday to Saturday storm may also miss the same zone.
Winds will pick up on the back side of the New England storm, significantly raising the wildfire risk once again.
The pattern may continue to evolve from this week to the end of the month so that the opportunities for rain become more significant over time and result in more widespread downpours. However, until soaking rains return on a regular basis, there will be more days where the fire risk is significant.
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