How long will NYC, Philly and DC go without rain?
A lack of rain has been running long in the mid-Atlantic and is setting records in at least one state so far. The dry weather may extend opportunities for fall leaf-viewing.
October has been extremely dry so far in the Northeast, but on the bright side, warmer temperatures are in store for the weekend.
While there have been showers over the interior Northeast and spotty rain in some coastal areas over the past few weeks, the area from near Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City has been incredibly dry and could go weeks before drenching downpours arrive, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The extended dry weather will continue to be great for outdoor activities, such as exercising, leisurely walks, ball games and rounds of golf. The dry conditions also make it easier for farmers to access the fields for the harvest.
However, the extended period without rainfall is leading to a rapidly expanding area of drought in the mid-Atlantic region and is only being tempered by low water demands this time of the year and the end of the growing season.
It has been weeks since enough rain fell to measure in New York and Islip, New York, Philadelphia and Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Trenton and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Abnormally dry to drought conditions have expanded considerably in the last month.
Since Aug. 20, Islip, located on central Long Island, has received only 0.40 of an inch of rain, compared to a historical average of 7.20 inches or 5% of the recent 30-year normal.
Trenton has not faired much better, with only 0.50 of an inch of rain since Aug. 20, or 6% of the historical average. Philadelphia has had only about 10% of the average while New York City has had 23% through Oct. 18.
The last time there was 0.01 of an inch of rain or greater in Washington, D.C., was the first couple of days of October. It poured in the nation's capital on Oct. 1 with 1.46 inches of rain reported. That rain missed much of New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and Maryland and southeastern New York.
Both Trenton and the Atlantic City Marina have never had a drier 60-day period. Records date back more than 150 years to 1865 in Trenton and 1873 in Atlantic City. Trenton has received only 0.75 of an inch of rain in the last 60 days, with only 0.62 of an inch of rain at the marina as of Oct. 16.
"The next chance of enough rain to thoroughly wet the ground will not come until the middle of this week for the mid-Atlantic region," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said, "And, there is no guarantee it will rain much at all or everywhere that is experiencing the dryness."
After the opportunity for rain in the middle of this week, the next chance may not come until sometime between Oct. 27 and 29.
While the dry conditions have had minimal negative effects thus far, the dryness can stress some trees and lead to quick color changes and leaf drop. In many cases, however, the prolonged dry and warm conditions can extend the colorful viewing conditions.
The combination of dormant grass and fallen leaves will raise the risk of catching fire, such as by sparks from outdoor power equipment or embers from dropped cigarettes.
Any episodes of windy conditions can substantially increase the brush and wildfire threat over the next couple of weeks--or until drenching rain falls. An approaching cool front toward the middle of this week may kick up some wind.
AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg looks ahead to next week’s weather patterns in the United States. Dry air for most of the U.S. could lead to an elevated fire risk.
Meanwhile, the recent autumn chill will turn into a blissfully warm weather pattern that will last into this week and possibly longer in some locations.
The dry landscape and air will allow big swings in temperature from the late night and early morning hours to the middle of the afternoon. Widespread highs well into the 70s and 80s are in store for the mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast. The afternoons may be warm enough for shorts and short sleeves to be comfortably worn by many.
The nights and start of the days may require a jacket and long sleeves. Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s in the mid-Atlantic and can sneak into the frosty 30s over the interior.
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