From parched lawns to wildfire risk, dry spell expands across the East
A stagnant weather pattern will limit rainfall across much of the East, raising fire danger and stressing vegetation as cooler, drier air spreads south into Florida.
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A persistent blocking pattern has disrupted the typical west-to-east movement of storm systems across the eastern half of the United States. This pattern is expected to limit significant rainfall across most areas through at least early this week, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Since last weekend, a large area of high pressure and dry air has been anchored over the eastern half of the nation. An exception has been the Florida Peninsula, where daily downpours have brought localized heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, a storm at sea grazed some coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic with spotty rain and drizzle during the middle of last week.
Looking ahead, some dry air has settled over central Florida and should greatly tone down the thunderstorm activity through Sunday. However, spotty showers will continue. Farther south, downpours may continue to pester places such as Miami and Key West for much of the weekend.
Farther north, a disturbance in the jet stream will bring spotty showers to New England and New York this weekend, with the potential for a rumble of thunder or two.
Even in areas that receive rain, amounts may be minimal—just enough to slightly moisten the surface. Rainfall in the shower zone on Sunday is likely to total less than 0.10 of an inch.
Dry conditions will return shortly after any spotty downpours move away.
No rain is expected from the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast and southeastward to much of the southern Atlantic coast until at least Monday. Even if a developing coastal storm remains offshore, beachgoers should use caution from northern Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as there can be an increase in rough surf and rip currents during the first part of the week.
Much of the eastern U.S. may remain dry through late this week should this coastal storm remain offshore. Given the dry conditions that began to unfold during August in many areas, drought conditions have intensified.
Water demands tend to drop off during season as less water is used for gardens, pools and lawns. However, it is also a time of the year when water tables drop, small streams shrink to a trickle and levels in lakes and reservoirs begin to fall.
Expanding, worsening drought conditions in the middle of the nation are leading to very low water levels on the Mississippi River, which could have significant negative impacts on shipping on the waterway. In turn, the delays and disruptions that result could lead to higher prices for consumers.
With the prevailing dry conditions, some trees have become stressed and are shedding leaves as grasses and brush become extremely dry. Unless a soaking rain falls, this will lead to an increase in wildfire potential in the coming days. Conditions are becoming comparable to those observed during the same period last year.
"The rainstorm that affected southern and eastern New England this past weekend helped and may have a lower risk there in the short term," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "However, where leaves are changing and dropping with little or no rain of late, such as in upstate New York and northern New England, the fire risk may increase rapidly."
Another common spot for brush fires is along area highways where tall, dormant grasses and brush can quickly ignite from discarded cigarettes or sparks from damaged vehicles.
Firefighters work to put out a brush fire, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, in Salem, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Individuals should exercise caution with open flames and outdoor power equipment, especially near dry vegetation.
Some vehicles' exhaust systems can remain extremely hot for minutes after the engine has been shut off—long enough to ignite nearby brush.
Despite the prolonged dry weather, the wet spring and early summer mean the pattern will still offer plenty of opportunities to enjoy outdoor activities.
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