Florida has been the driest in decades as widespread drought worsens
Florida faces one of its driest periods in decades, with severe drought gripping most of the state, fueling wildfires and raising concerns as rainfall remains limited heading into the early stages of the wet season.
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Nearly all of Florida is experiencing drought, and while some areas will experience an uptick in showers, thunderstorms and humidity, others may receive little to no rain in the coming weeks.
More than 72% of Florida is experiencing Level 3 or Level 4 drought, the two most severe categories, according to the United States Drought Monitor. River and stream levels in the northern third of the state are very low.
"The current drought is rivaling that of the period from 1998 to 2002," AccuWeather Vice President of Forecast Operations Dan DePodwin said. "There are about 8 million more people in Florida now than around the start of the new millennium, putting additional strain on available water supplies."
Florida also experienced a prolonged statewide drought from 1949 to 1957, DePodwin added, an example of how many years can pass without one. The current situation is serious.
"There is a misconception that Florida is always wet," DePodwin said. "Florida has an extensive dry season from mid autumn through winter and into spring. While it varies from year to year, this current stretch is one of the driest in decades."
October is typically the driest month of the year across much of the state, with Orlando averaging just 1.79 inches of rain. This past October, Orlando received just 0.07 of an inch of rain.
Since the start of the year, Orlando has received about 32% of its typical rainfall — just over 2 inches. Gainesville has recorded 34% of average and Jacksonville 41%. Frequent sunshine and dry winter air have left soil moisture very low, while sandy soils dry out quickly, worsening drought conditions.
Dry vegetation has fueled more than 1,400 wildfires that burned over 86,000 acres from Jan. 1 through March 15, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.
Looking ahead, the rainy season typically ramps up as spring progresses, with moisture streaming in from the Atlantic and Gulf. Orlando averages 2.58 inches of rain in April, 4.02 inches in May and 8.05 inches in June. However, showers and thunderstorms can be inconsistent and spotty, especially if persistent high pressure lingers into the early part of the season.
"One thing that could change that is for a tropical depression or storm to wander over the state," AccuWeather Meteorologist Peyton Simmers said. "There is no sign of that in the next few weeks, though it becomes more possible closer to hurricane season, which begins June 1."
"The area from the Florida Panhandle to southern Georgia and Alabama may worsen in the weeks ahead as days lengthen, the sun angle increases and temperatures rise," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "There is a chance a tropical system could develop in late May or June as high pressure builds to the north and potentially steers it westward into Florida. However, that is far from certain at this early stage."
AccuWeather will release its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, March 25.
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The ongoing lack of rain will keep water costs elevated for homeowners, businesses and agriculture in the weeks ahead. Residents are urged to use extreme caution with open flames and power equipment, as sparks could quickly ignite fast-spreading wildfires.
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