Fire weather to return in Northeast, despite more rain for some
At least a half dozen states and millions of people will be in a high wildfire risk zone later this week to this weekend as rain comes and goes, dry conditions build and winds kick up.
With a drought warning in place in New Jersey, what does that mean for water use?
Despite the approach of two storms with rain, drought and high brush fire conditions are likely to persist for weeks for millions in the Northeast, AccuWeather meterorologists say.
The brush fire risk will again surge to high levels by the end of the week and affect at least a half a dozen states in the Northeast. Tens of millions live in this zone that includes the major metro areas of New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore. However, the highest risk will be outside of these urban locations, where there are vast areas of woodlands and fields with dry brush.
One storm will approach from the Midwest and spread rain into the central Appalachians and the lower part of the mid-Atlantic into Friday morning.
The other storm is forecast to track westward from the Atlantic Ocean and bring showery rain and west snow to portions of New England from Friday to Saturday.
Similarly, enough snow may fall to create slippery travel, especially over the Green and White Mountains.
Instead of merging into one large storm with a vast shield of precipitation, the two storms will remain separate, with a zone of dry weather in between.
That dry area is most likely to extend from much of upstate New York through northern and eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, much of Delaware and southwestern New England.
As the Midwest storm fades away late this week and weekend, the New England storm will be potent enough to kick up gusty winds in much of the same area that receives no rain. Even with much lower temperatures than the past few weeks, the dry air, drying brush and winds can quickly spread any flames that ignite.
The high fire risk zone will expand and shift daily through the weekend as moisture from both storms fades away and dry air extends.
This image from the National Interagency Fire Agency shows active fires (orange flames) and recent fires over the past week (red dots) in the northeastern United States as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024.
Even where rain falls in parts of the region towards the end of the week, it might not have a noticeable effect on the levels of streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs until the topsoil is thoroughly soaked and runoff resumes. Many lake and reservoir levels may continue to drop into next week. The drying streambeds are taking a toll on aquatic life with a significant fish kill occurring in some cases.
AccuWeather’s Alex Sosnowski reports worsening drought conditions in the Northeast region of the United States with many rivers heavily impacted and water reservoir levels dropping.
According to the latest United States Drought Monitor, 96% of the Northeast was experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions. The percentage is higher than the previous week by 2 points.
Multiple large general rainstorms are needed where soakings occur over several days. Instead, small-scale or low-output rain events are in store that may break a string of dry days but not fully replenish soil moisture.
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