Atmospheric river to fuel more flooding in Arkansas, Missouri on Easter weekend
With Easter weekend kicking off the first big outdoor getaway for many, campers and travelers face heightened risks from torrential rain, flash flooding, and severe storms packing damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and isolated tornadoes.
AccuWeather’s Alex Sosnowski warns of an emerging flood risk along the Mississippi River as a storm system is expected to bring heavy rain heading into the weekend.
A dangerous flooding setup is taking shape across the Ozark Mountains of Missouri, Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma over the extended Easter weekend—just two weeks after deadly floods inundated parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This latest round of storms could deliver a similar torrent of rain, raising the risk for life-threatening flash flooding in a region with steep terrain and vulnerable waterways, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
While the upcoming rain may not be quite as extreme or as long-lasting as early April, downpours are projected from north-central Texas to central Illinois and southwestern Indiana. An atmospheric river sourcing moisture out of the western Gulf, will be the driver for the rounds of rain across the region.
Within this zone, a general 1-4 inches of rain will fall through Sunday evening, which would be well short of what can trigger a life-threatening flash flood or a widespread flooding disaster.
A band of much heavier rain, on the order of 4-8 inches, is forecast over a multi-day period, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 11 inches. At least half of that rain may fall in a few hours. Within this band, life-threatening flash flooding can occur and will affect areas that dodged flooding earlier this month. However, an overlap of both heavy rain events from early April to this weekend will occur in some areas.
Given the hilly terrain in the Ozark Mountains, which extends from central Missouri to northwestern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma, rapid runoff can lead to flash flooding of small streams and urban areas.
With Easter weekend marking the first big outdoor getaway of the season for many, campers and travelers face a heightened risk from torrential rain, rounds of severe thunderstorms capable of unleashing damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and even tornadoes.
Motorists are strongly urged not to attempt to drive through a flooded roadway. Many country roads in Missouri and Texas have low-water crossings, which may be too dangerous to drive through safely. Campers should use extreme caution when choosing a site. Avoid low-lying areas along small streams, which may be subject to flash flooding this weekend. Some access roads may become blocked by high water.
Runoff from this weekend’s rain will eventually flow into the Mississippi River but likely not until after water levels have receded.
Tributary rivers of the Mississippi, and even the small streams that flow into those rivers, are expected to rise significantly and may flood as a result of this weekend’s heavy rain. These may include the Meramec, the lower part of the Missouri, and the Arkansas rivers. Waters on the Meramec surged to major stage in early April, while the heavy rain fell just south of St. Louis. This time, the Mississippi River port city may experience flash urban flooding and significant rises on the rivers in the immediate vicinity, including just to the north and west.
River gauges, managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, with data from NOAA may not accurately show the full extent of the rising water levels until well after heavy rain begins.
This image is a snapshot of river gauge forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as of Saturday morning, April 19, 2025. Green dots are indicative of the individual gauges where no flooding is currently occurring, nor is any forecast. By comparison, red indicates moderate flooding and purple indicates major flooding along the lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers on the right portion of the image. (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/NOAA)
Meanwhile, the surge of water from the rain early in April continues to work downstream on the Mississippi River. Crests have occurred or will occur this weekend along the shores of the Mississippi that border Tennessee, southern Missouri, western Kentucky, northern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Waters in these areas will be at moderate to major flood stage.
Farther south, from southern Arkansas and central Mississippi through much of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, it may take until nearly the end of the month for the Mississippi River to crest at moderate to major flood stage.
On a positive note, much of the rain forecast to fall this weekend will avoid areas that experienced the worst flooding from early April in Tennessee, Kentucky, far eastern Arkansas and the southern parts of Indiana, Ohio and, to some extent, southern Illinois. For example, there should not be any flooding from this weekend's rain along the Kentucky River or the middle to upper reaches of the Ohio.
Comparatively, 8-16 inches of rain fell in four days over parts of the Ohio, Tennessee and middle Mississippi valleys in early April.
Some additional rain will fall during middle to late this week and will be centered more on the lower Mississippi Valley.
However, it should be relatively spread out and not highly focused on a narrow zone.
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