AccuWeather’s 2020-2021 South America summer forecast
By
Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published Nov 4, 2020 7:05 PM EDT
Peru's Machu Picchu welcomed guests once again on Nov. 1, after the Inca Citadel and popular tourist site closed to visitors earlier this year due to COVID-19.
The start of summer is right around the corner for residents in South America, and the upcoming season will bring some big changes that will set it apart from the past few summers across the continent.
AccuWeather’s team of international forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Jason Nicholls, has released its predictions for what weather will unfold across South America this summer. After analyzing various weather models and ongoing, large-scale weather phenomenon, it has become apparent that one factor will play a major role in shaping the weather across South America in the upcoming season.
“Moderate La Niña conditions are expected to be the main driver through much of the season,” Nicholls said.
Sea-surface-temperature departures from the 1981-2010 average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean in September 2020 showed a vast area of cooler-than-normal water. (Climate.gov)
“La Niña is basically the cooling of the surface water in the central and/or eastern Equatorial Pacific and the warming of surface water in the western Equatorial Pacific,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. “This causes changes in the surface and upper wind patterns that drive air masses across the globe."
One region of South America will be heavily influenced by this climate phenomenon resulting in a summer that is vastly different than those in recent memory.
Overall, the warm summer months may help to slow the spread of the coronavirus as people will be able to spend more time outside and businesses, such as restaurants, will be able to expand outdoor areas. The number of cases across the continent surged in the winter and spring with Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranking in the top 10 countries with the highest number of confirmed cases, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. With the weather now promoting more outdoor, open-air activities, countries may begin to get a better handle on the spread of the virus.
Here's a region-by-region breakdown of what to expect across South America throughout the summer, which officially begins on Dec. 21:
This summer is shaping up much differently than the past two for the northern portion of South America, mainly due to the influence of La Niña.
“The cool waters off Ecuador and Peru due to the La Niña should result in drier and cooler-than-normal conditions along the Pacific coast from Ecuador to Peru,” Nicholls said.
While La Niña promotes dry conditions along the Pacific coast, it will have the opposite effect farther inland.
“In contrast, beneficial rains are expected from Colombia, interior Ecuador and northeast Peru across Venezuela to far northern Brazil,” Nicholls said. “Rainfall can be above normal across these areas.”
Frequent bouts of rain could lead to flash flooding and landslides in the more mountainous terrain, but overall, the wet summer will be beneficial across the region.
“These rains should help alleviate drought conditions across portions of Venezuela and northwest Brazil and improve conditions for hydroelectric power generation in Venezuela,” Nicholls said.
A majority of Venezuela’s power is supplied by hydroelectric power plants, and drought has been a major factor in the reliability of the power source. Corruption and mismanagement have led to failing infrastructure and have also played a big factor in the country's water and power insecurity, according to The Associated Press.
“Dry conditions across the nation resulted in power disruptions in recent years,” Nicholls said.
The upcoming rain this summer may not be enough to erase the drought completely, but it will be a big step forward to help replenish water reservoirs across the region.
The upcoming rain may also help in the short term for those struggling amid Venezuela’s water shortage.
A woman washes her protective face masks with runoff water from the Avila mountain in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, June 21, 2020. Water shortages have continued to deepen in Venezuela at a time when the threat of the coronavirus makes washing hands even more critical. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
It is estimated that 86% of Venezuelans have an unreliable source of water with some residents going months without running water in their homes, the AP reported. In some instances, people have broken coronavirus lockdown measures to find water for their families.
To make matters worse, the water shortage makes it more difficult for people to wash their hands and face masks regularly amid the ongoing pandemic. However, with prospects of rain, access to water may become easier throughout the summer months.
This spring brought another bad fire season to South America, but the upcoming weather pattern could help to slow the spread of blazes that have grown out of control across the continent.
“The Amazon basin should have near- to perhaps slightly above-normal rainfall with temperatures above normal, which may help ease any wildfire concerns,” Nicholls said.
Just like in 2019, the fires burning across the Amazon basin “have been anything but routine,” NASA researchers said in October.
“Rather than remaining small and burning for short periods, fires this year have escaped and burned unchecked in several ecosystems, including the Pantanal wetlands in the eastern part of [Bolivia]; the dry Chiquitano forest in the southeast; and Beni savanna and Amazon rainforest areas in the north,” NASA explained.
Smoke from these fires stretched thousands of miles filling the sky over nearly half of the countries in South America.
Smoke from fires can be seen over South America on Sept. 11, 2020. (NASA Worldview)
In addition to helping to slow the spread of the fires, the anticipated rainfall will be good for farmers.
“The key crop areas in Brazil from Minas Gerias to Mato Grosso on southward to Santa Catarina as well as much of Bolivia and Paraguay should have favorable growing conditions with occasional rain and near- to above-normal temperatures,” Nicholls said.
However, this will not be the case for farmers all across the region.
“Main soybean and corn areas in Rio Grande Do Sul into Uruguay and northern Argentina can have dryness problems with rounds of heat that can stress crops,” Nicholls said.
The best opportunities for rain for these areas will be January into the first part of February, which is the heart of the growing season.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
As rainy spells soak the Amazon Basin and the primary farmlands of Brazil on a regular basis this summer, the northeastern areas of the country will experience a much different weather pattern.
Infrequent rain is expected across northeastern Brazil, bringing dryness concerns to the region. This includes the states of Bahia, Piaui, Ceara, Rio Grande Do Norte, Paraiba, Pernamuco, Alagoas and Sergipe.
Some of the hottest weather across the continent this summer is forecast to focus on Chile, Argentina and Uruguay with the potential for several heat waves.
“Much of central Argentina, as well as northern and central Chile, will be seasonably dry with frequent bouts of heat which can lead to drought problems,” Nicholls said.
Major cities across South America, like Buenos Aires, Argentina, Montevideo, Uruguay, and Santiago, Chile, are all at risk of experiencing hot and dry conditions this summer.
In Chile, this anticipated warmth paired with prolonged dry spells will lead to an elevated risk of wildfires, particularly across central and southern portions of the country, Nicholls said.
The predominantly dry conditions across the region, while bad for drought, could be good news for skywatchers in December.
On Dec. 14, 2020, the moon will pass directly between the Earth and the sun, creating a total solar eclipse that will be visible in part of southern Chile and southern Argentina. The narrow zone that will be in the path of the shadow of the moon will be not too far south from the location of the total solar eclipse in 2019.
People view a total solar eclipse from La Higuera, Chile, Tuesday, July 2, 2019. Tens of thousands of tourists and locals gaped skyward Tuesday as a rare total eclipse of the sun began to darken the heavens over northern Chile. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)
Much of the rest of South America will be able to witness a partial solar eclipse this day, with the exception of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and northern Brazil, as long as cloudy conditions do not obscure the sky. Additionally, proper eyewear is required to see the event as looking at the sun without a solar filter can lead to permanent eye damage.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Weather Forecasts
AccuWeather’s 2020-2021 South America summer forecast
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior content editor
Published Nov 4, 2020 7:05 PM EDT
Peru's Machu Picchu welcomed guests once again on Nov. 1, after the Inca Citadel and popular tourist site closed to visitors earlier this year due to COVID-19.
The start of summer is right around the corner for residents in South America, and the upcoming season will bring some big changes that will set it apart from the past few summers across the continent.
AccuWeather’s team of international forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Jason Nicholls, has released its predictions for what weather will unfold across South America this summer. After analyzing various weather models and ongoing, large-scale weather phenomenon, it has become apparent that one factor will play a major role in shaping the weather across South America in the upcoming season.
“Moderate La Niña conditions are expected to be the main driver through much of the season,” Nicholls said.
Sea-surface-temperature departures from the 1981-2010 average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean in September 2020 showed a vast area of cooler-than-normal water. (Climate.gov)
“La Niña is basically the cooling of the surface water in the central and/or eastern Equatorial Pacific and the warming of surface water in the western Equatorial Pacific,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok explained. “This causes changes in the surface and upper wind patterns that drive air masses across the globe."
One region of South America will be heavily influenced by this climate phenomenon resulting in a summer that is vastly different than those in recent memory.
Overall, the warm summer months may help to slow the spread of the coronavirus as people will be able to spend more time outside and businesses, such as restaurants, will be able to expand outdoor areas. The number of cases across the continent surged in the winter and spring with Brazil, Argentina and Colombia ranking in the top 10 countries with the highest number of confirmed cases, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. With the weather now promoting more outdoor, open-air activities, countries may begin to get a better handle on the spread of the virus.
Here's a region-by-region breakdown of what to expect across South America throughout the summer, which officially begins on Dec. 21:
Peru, Colombia and Venezuela
This summer is shaping up much differently than the past two for the northern portion of South America, mainly due to the influence of La Niña.
“The cool waters off Ecuador and Peru due to the La Niña should result in drier and cooler-than-normal conditions along the Pacific coast from Ecuador to Peru,” Nicholls said.
While La Niña promotes dry conditions along the Pacific coast, it will have the opposite effect farther inland.
“In contrast, beneficial rains are expected from Colombia, interior Ecuador and northeast Peru across Venezuela to far northern Brazil,” Nicholls said. “Rainfall can be above normal across these areas.”
Frequent bouts of rain could lead to flash flooding and landslides in the more mountainous terrain, but overall, the wet summer will be beneficial across the region.
“These rains should help alleviate drought conditions across portions of Venezuela and northwest Brazil and improve conditions for hydroelectric power generation in Venezuela,” Nicholls said.
A majority of Venezuela’s power is supplied by hydroelectric power plants, and drought has been a major factor in the reliability of the power source. Corruption and mismanagement have led to failing infrastructure and have also played a big factor in the country's water and power insecurity, according to The Associated Press.
“Dry conditions across the nation resulted in power disruptions in recent years,” Nicholls said.
The upcoming rain this summer may not be enough to erase the drought completely, but it will be a big step forward to help replenish water reservoirs across the region.
The upcoming rain may also help in the short term for those struggling amid Venezuela’s water shortage.
A woman washes her protective face masks with runoff water from the Avila mountain in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, June 21, 2020. Water shortages have continued to deepen in Venezuela at a time when the threat of the coronavirus makes washing hands even more critical. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
It is estimated that 86% of Venezuelans have an unreliable source of water with some residents going months without running water in their homes, the AP reported. In some instances, people have broken coronavirus lockdown measures to find water for their families.
To make matters worse, the water shortage makes it more difficult for people to wash their hands and face masks regularly amid the ongoing pandemic. However, with prospects of rain, access to water may become easier throughout the summer months.
Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay
This spring brought another bad fire season to South America, but the upcoming weather pattern could help to slow the spread of blazes that have grown out of control across the continent.
“The Amazon basin should have near- to perhaps slightly above-normal rainfall with temperatures above normal, which may help ease any wildfire concerns,” Nicholls said.
Just like in 2019, the fires burning across the Amazon basin “have been anything but routine,” NASA researchers said in October.
“Rather than remaining small and burning for short periods, fires this year have escaped and burned unchecked in several ecosystems, including the Pantanal wetlands in the eastern part of [Bolivia]; the dry Chiquitano forest in the southeast; and Beni savanna and Amazon rainforest areas in the north,” NASA explained.
Smoke from these fires stretched thousands of miles filling the sky over nearly half of the countries in South America.
Smoke from fires can be seen over South America on Sept. 11, 2020. (NASA Worldview)
In addition to helping to slow the spread of the fires, the anticipated rainfall will be good for farmers.
“The key crop areas in Brazil from Minas Gerias to Mato Grosso on southward to Santa Catarina as well as much of Bolivia and Paraguay should have favorable growing conditions with occasional rain and near- to above-normal temperatures,” Nicholls said.
However, this will not be the case for farmers all across the region.
“Main soybean and corn areas in Rio Grande Do Sul into Uruguay and northern Argentina can have dryness problems with rounds of heat that can stress crops,” Nicholls said.
The best opportunities for rain for these areas will be January into the first part of February, which is the heart of the growing season.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
As rainy spells soak the Amazon Basin and the primary farmlands of Brazil on a regular basis this summer, the northeastern areas of the country will experience a much different weather pattern.
Infrequent rain is expected across northeastern Brazil, bringing dryness concerns to the region. This includes the states of Bahia, Piaui, Ceara, Rio Grande Do Norte, Paraiba, Pernamuco, Alagoas and Sergipe.
Chile, Argentina and Uruguay
Some of the hottest weather across the continent this summer is forecast to focus on Chile, Argentina and Uruguay with the potential for several heat waves.
“Much of central Argentina, as well as northern and central Chile, will be seasonably dry with frequent bouts of heat which can lead to drought problems,” Nicholls said.
Major cities across South America, like Buenos Aires, Argentina, Montevideo, Uruguay, and Santiago, Chile, are all at risk of experiencing hot and dry conditions this summer.
In Chile, this anticipated warmth paired with prolonged dry spells will lead to an elevated risk of wildfires, particularly across central and southern portions of the country, Nicholls said.
The predominantly dry conditions across the region, while bad for drought, could be good news for skywatchers in December.
On Dec. 14, 2020, the moon will pass directly between the Earth and the sun, creating a total solar eclipse that will be visible in part of southern Chile and southern Argentina. The narrow zone that will be in the path of the shadow of the moon will be not too far south from the location of the total solar eclipse in 2019.
People view a total solar eclipse from La Higuera, Chile, Tuesday, July 2, 2019. Tens of thousands of tourists and locals gaped skyward Tuesday as a rare total eclipse of the sun began to darken the heavens over northern Chile. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)
Much of the rest of South America will be able to witness a partial solar eclipse this day, with the exception of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and northern Brazil, as long as cloudy conditions do not obscure the sky. Additionally, proper eyewear is required to see the event as looking at the sun without a solar filter can lead to permanent eye damage.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo