AccuWeather's 2020-2021 Australia summer forecast
By
Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Nov 12, 2020 1:33 PM EST
In this Feb. 1, 2020, file photo, a bushfire burns in the grass near Bumbalong, south of the Australian capital, Canberra. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)
(AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)
After Australia's 2019-2020 bushfire season burned an estimated 46-million acres, displaced tens of thousands of people and killed or displaced an estimated three billion animals, the upcoming summer, which begins Dec. 21, is expected to offer a more rainy season than the last.
Conditions this summer will favor wetter-than-normal conditions across a swath of northern to eastern Australia, stretching into northern New Zealand. The wetter weather will in turn usher in cooler weather as well as discourage a repeat of the most recent bushfire season.
Where last season saw a hot, dry summer, Australia will see excess rainfall, particularly across the northern portion of the nation where tropical threats will result in flooding and damage risk across the region.
"It should be a more active tropical season than last season with more impacts on Australia than last year," AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting up to 12 cyclones in the 2020-2021 season with a more even spread of storms throughout the season compared to last year. Up to six cyclones could threaten Western Australia to the north of the Northern Territory or Queensland and four could impact areas to the east of Queensland.
Caught in the crosshairs of two different climate patterns in two separate oceans, the northern region of Australia will see the warming of waters and a more active hurricane season as a result.
To the east, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ESNO) climate pattern across the Pacific Ocean will influence water temperatures during the summer. This season will hold a La Niña pattern, meaning that the water will be cooler near South America, and warmer waters will take hold in the western Pacific.
Farther northwest, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Indian Ocean equivalent of the ESNO, will hold neutral for most of the season. However, warmer-than-normal waters will prevail around northwestern Australia for most of the season before sea-surface temperatures shift closer to normal toward autumn.
A more active tropical season will also mean the chance that remnants of a tropical cyclone or two could impact the northern island of New Zealand with heavy rain, which could create a flood risk. The most likely timing of this would be mid-season during January and February.
Conversely, the southern portion of New Zealand will experience a drier- and warmer-than-usual summer. While New Zealand doesn't experience the same bushfire concerns with hot, dry weather that Australia does, there are still concerns over drought conditions developing.
Heat waves will also impact southwestern and eastern Australia, though these bouts of hot weather should be short-lived and less frequent than last summer. Prevalent rain in southwestern Australia may contribute to leveling temperatures to near-normal levels for the season as a whole.
During 2019, a deadly heat wave gripped the nation. The record national average maximum temperature for a single day was toppled, averaging 105.6 degrees F (40.9 C), according to The New York Times. The previous record had been 104.5 F (40.3 C), set in January 2013. A special weather statement issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on Dec. 18, 2019, highlighted that the combined heat and dryness had driven the spring Forest Fire Danger Index to record high levels across the country. This season, the bouts of rain are likely to interrupt temperatures from averaging as high as last season.
Thunderstorms and rain could lead to delays during the Australia Open in Melbourne, which is scheduled to be played from Jan. 18 to Jan. 31, 2021. Any delays should be minor.
In this Jan. 20, 2020, file photo, United States' Sloane Stephens reacts during her first-round match against China's Zhang Shuai at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
(AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
Last season, smoke from bushfires around Melbourne, which had resulted in a few delays during the open, had been the primary concern. This season, however, AccuWeather forecasters do not envision smoke becoming a primary concern as the fires are not predicted to be as intense as last year. Instead, competitors' focus will be centered on any heat waves that could overlap with the matches.
This satellite image provided by NASA on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 shows wildfires in Victoria and New South Wales, Australia. Climate change raised the chances of Australia’s extreme fire season by at least 30%, according to a study released Wednesday, March 4, 2020, by climate scientists at the World Weather Attribution group. (NASA via AP)
(NASA via AP)
A study analyzing extreme heat events in Australia between 1844 to 2010 found that extreme heat events have killed at least 5,332 people in Australia, proving to be the deadliest natural hazard in the nation. Heat-related illnesses are not only preventable but recognizable and can be treated before worsening and leading to death.
During an extreme heat event, knowing the signs of heatstroke and its precursor, heat exhaustion, as well as the differences between the two, can save lives.
With the threat of thunderstorms, precautions should be taken to avoid the dangers of lightning strikes. There are between five and 10 deaths from lightning strikes in Australia each year with an additional 100 injuries, according to UWA. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors, and if there's a lightning flash, dash inside.
Report a Typo
News / Weather Forecasts
AccuWeather's 2020-2021 Australia summer forecast
By Adriana Navarro, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Nov 12, 2020 1:33 PM EST
In this Feb. 1, 2020, file photo, a bushfire burns in the grass near Bumbalong, south of the Australian capital, Canberra. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)
After Australia's 2019-2020 bushfire season burned an estimated 46-million acres, displaced tens of thousands of people and killed or displaced an estimated three billion animals, the upcoming summer, which begins Dec. 21, is expected to offer a more rainy season than the last.
Conditions this summer will favor wetter-than-normal conditions across a swath of northern to eastern Australia, stretching into northern New Zealand. The wetter weather will in turn usher in cooler weather as well as discourage a repeat of the most recent bushfire season.
Where last season saw a hot, dry summer, Australia will see excess rainfall, particularly across the northern portion of the nation where tropical threats will result in flooding and damage risk across the region.
"It should be a more active tropical season than last season with more impacts on Australia than last year," AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting up to 12 cyclones in the 2020-2021 season with a more even spread of storms throughout the season compared to last year. Up to six cyclones could threaten Western Australia to the north of the Northern Territory or Queensland and four could impact areas to the east of Queensland.
Caught in the crosshairs of two different climate patterns in two separate oceans, the northern region of Australia will see the warming of waters and a more active hurricane season as a result.
To the east, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ESNO) climate pattern across the Pacific Ocean will influence water temperatures during the summer. This season will hold a La Niña pattern, meaning that the water will be cooler near South America, and warmer waters will take hold in the western Pacific.
Farther northwest, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Indian Ocean equivalent of the ESNO, will hold neutral for most of the season. However, warmer-than-normal waters will prevail around northwestern Australia for most of the season before sea-surface temperatures shift closer to normal toward autumn.
A more active tropical season will also mean the chance that remnants of a tropical cyclone or two could impact the northern island of New Zealand with heavy rain, which could create a flood risk. The most likely timing of this would be mid-season during January and February.
Conversely, the southern portion of New Zealand will experience a drier- and warmer-than-usual summer. While New Zealand doesn't experience the same bushfire concerns with hot, dry weather that Australia does, there are still concerns over drought conditions developing.
Heat waves will also impact southwestern and eastern Australia, though these bouts of hot weather should be short-lived and less frequent than last summer. Prevalent rain in southwestern Australia may contribute to leveling temperatures to near-normal levels for the season as a whole.
During 2019, a deadly heat wave gripped the nation. The record national average maximum temperature for a single day was toppled, averaging 105.6 degrees F (40.9 C), according to The New York Times. The previous record had been 104.5 F (40.3 C), set in January 2013. A special weather statement issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on Dec. 18, 2019, highlighted that the combined heat and dryness had driven the spring Forest Fire Danger Index to record high levels across the country. This season, the bouts of rain are likely to interrupt temperatures from averaging as high as last season.
Thunderstorms and rain could lead to delays during the Australia Open in Melbourne, which is scheduled to be played from Jan. 18 to Jan. 31, 2021. Any delays should be minor.
In this Jan. 20, 2020, file photo, United States' Sloane Stephens reacts during her first-round match against China's Zhang Shuai at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
Last season, smoke from bushfires around Melbourne, which had resulted in a few delays during the open, had been the primary concern. This season, however, AccuWeather forecasters do not envision smoke becoming a primary concern as the fires are not predicted to be as intense as last year. Instead, competitors' focus will be centered on any heat waves that could overlap with the matches.
This satellite image provided by NASA on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 shows wildfires in Victoria and New South Wales, Australia. Climate change raised the chances of Australia’s extreme fire season by at least 30%, according to a study released Wednesday, March 4, 2020, by climate scientists at the World Weather Attribution group. (NASA via AP)
A study analyzing extreme heat events in Australia between 1844 to 2010 found that extreme heat events have killed at least 5,332 people in Australia, proving to be the deadliest natural hazard in the nation. Heat-related illnesses are not only preventable but recognizable and can be treated before worsening and leading to death.
During an extreme heat event, knowing the signs of heatstroke and its precursor, heat exhaustion, as well as the differences between the two, can save lives.
With the threat of thunderstorms, precautions should be taken to avoid the dangers of lightning strikes. There are between five and 10 deaths from lightning strikes in Australia each year with an additional 100 injuries, according to UWA. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors, and if there's a lightning flash, dash inside.
Related: