So Where Are The Snowstorms, and the Hype?
UPDATE: After some further thought, I have added #3 "It's too cold to snow" to my list of reasons below.
At what will probably be a detriment to my blog traffic, I don't see the need to do "hype" every GFS storm this season since we've got a lot of folks over on the Forums taking a close look at every potential storm. Why right now, the following storms are active on the Forums:
- Dec. 5-7th Plains/MW/GL/OV Clipper Forecasts - Dec 6-8 MidAtl/NE Snow Forecasts- Dec. 8-10 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm Forecasts- Dec. 9-11 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts- Dec 13-14 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Forecasts
Of course, if something looks promising, I'll let you know. We've seen a lot of hype from the GFS this year with almost no snow storms coming true yet for the Northeast (outside of heavy lake-effect). I think even Henry (PREMIUM | PRO) is hyping less this year.
So that begs the question, where are the snow storms in the Ohio Valley & East? Well, remember, even though we have a good bit of cold air...
1. It's just barely December, not technically "Winter" yet. 2. The storm track has not yet made the switch to be further east. 3. It's "too cold to snow"* 3. As long as the cold air sticks around, which it should do for most of December, we'll eventually get one.
*What I mean by this is that when the Arctic outbreak takes over the entire eastern half of the nation, high pressure is in control and the temperature contrast is not there to produce storms that can bring significant snow.
We predicted back in October that the general storm track would be slightly further east this year, over Ohio & western Pennsylvania, instead of the Midwest as it was last year. So far, that has not happened, and the accumulating snows have mimicked the track from 2007-2008's winter, but it's still early.
One reader left a comment yesterday asking if the SSTs (sea-surface temperatures) off the Southeast Coast would help the Southeast get a snowier winter. Unfortunately there are two things working against that, one being that they are below normal right now (due to the early-season cold outbreak that spawned crazy clouds). Below is a map showing the difference compared to normal last week:
What you want to see, to create more powerful coastal storms, are reds and oranges, not blues. And even if we did have higher-than-normal ocean temps, they might aid in a more powerful Nor'easter, but wouldn't do the Southeast much good (if the storm formed off the Carolina coast it would be throwing moisture counterclockwise from the Atlantic ocean into New England).
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