Asia winter outlook
By
Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Nov 21, 2021 10:33 AM EDT
|
Updated Nov 21, 2021 10:33 AM EDT
A blast of cold air brought some early snow to northeast China back in early November, including around 4 centimeters (~1.5 inches) of snow in Beijing. Meteorological winter is less than two weeks away, so what does the season have in store for Asia?
Before jumping into the outlook let us take a look at the state of some sea-surface temperature based teleconnections. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was weakly negative until a week or so ago and is now neutral. The IOD will remain neutral through the season, but warm waters off Indonesia should linger through at least early winter. These warm waters will certainly have some influence on the pattern, especially across southeast Asia.
In the equatorial Pacific, La Nina conditions have returned according to NOAA. A weak to marginally moderate La Nina is expected through the upcoming winter, but likely peaks in strength in the early to middle part of the season. There is a small chance the classic La Nina transitions to more of a central Pacific based La Nina late in the season, which can change impacts some heading into spring.
La Nina conditions will certainly influence the global pattern over the next few months, but will not be the only factor, so we are expecting some deviation from traditional La Nina impacts. Taking a look at several factors we came up with our analog years. The composite upper-air pattern as well as temperature and precipitation anomalies for our analog package can be seen below.
A brief look at some climate model ensembles we can see some similarities between our analog package and the recent modeling. However, the modeling is much warmer in northeast Asia than our analogs. Our analogs also look wetter in Turkey and parts of the Middle East compared to the modeling.
Taking everything into consideration here is our winter outlook for Asia.
Our forecast is leaning toward a wetter outlook for Turkey and parts of the Middle East compared to what some modeling portrays. Much of Turkey can have above-normal precipitation with a few opportunities for snow, especially later in December and January. Some precipitation can reach southward to Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia on occasion, but these systems can frequently miss the southern Arabian Peninsula, portions of Iraq and western Iran.
The storm track is expected to be such that there should be fewer western disturbances affecting Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India than recent winters with precipitation expected to average below normal in these areas, as well as Nepal into Bangladesh. Precipitation is also expected to be below normal in southeast China. Warm waters in the eastern Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific should result in much of southeast Asia, the Philippines and southern India into Sri Lanka being wetter than usual. Cloud cover and precipitation are expected to result in temperatures near to perhaps below normal in portions of southern India and southeast Asia.
There is a chance for tropical threats in the northern Indian Ocean and Philippine Sea into the South China Sea early in the winter. The best chance for tropical development in the northern Indian Ocean looks to be in December when there can be one or two systems of depression intensity or stronger. Any development in the Bay of Bengal has a good chance to impact southern India and Sri Lanka, which can lead to more flooding problems, especially in already saturated parts of southern India.
Firefighters rescue people from a flooded residential area after heavy rain in Chennai. Photo: AFP
The West Pacific looks to start December on a quiet note with a better threat of tropical development later in December and perhaps carrying into early January. The areas most likely to be impacted by any tropical development in the West Pacific should be the Philippines, southern China and Vietnam.
Northeast Asia has already experienced cold shots in November, but overall, autumn has been milder than normal across eastern China into the Korean Peninsula and Japan. More cold shots are expected across these areas in December and January which can result in a few opportunities for snow. The frequency of cold shots may ease late in the season, but the cold earlier in the season is expected to result in temperatures near to slightly below normal in northeast China and the Korean Peninsula.
Much of Japan should be milder than normal, but there will still be brief cold shots into the nation which should result in near- to above-normal snowfall in the favored sea-effect snow areas of western and northern Japan. Tokyo can have a little snow, especially in midwinter with snowfall expected to be close to normal.
The combination of cold shots and frontal systems can result in near- to above-normal snowfall in Beijing and Seoul. Normal snowfall in Beijing is 3-8 cm (1-3 inches) and 8-16 cm (3-6 inches) in Seoul. Beijing has already had about 4 cm or about 1.5 inches, so snowfall is already close to normal in the area. Farther south and west we are expecting snowfall to be lower than last year across the mountains of Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwest India into Nepal. Snowfall can be lower than usual in these areas as well.
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Weather Blogs / Global weather
Asia winter outlook
By Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Nov 21, 2021 10:33 AM EDT | Updated Nov 21, 2021 10:33 AM EDT
A blast of cold air brought some early snow to northeast China back in early November, including around 4 centimeters (~1.5 inches) of snow in Beijing. Meteorological winter is less than two weeks away, so what does the season have in store for Asia?
Before jumping into the outlook let us take a look at the state of some sea-surface temperature based teleconnections. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was weakly negative until a week or so ago and is now neutral. The IOD will remain neutral through the season, but warm waters off Indonesia should linger through at least early winter. These warm waters will certainly have some influence on the pattern, especially across southeast Asia.
In the equatorial Pacific, La Nina conditions have returned according to NOAA. A weak to marginally moderate La Nina is expected through the upcoming winter, but likely peaks in strength in the early to middle part of the season. There is a small chance the classic La Nina transitions to more of a central Pacific based La Nina late in the season, which can change impacts some heading into spring.
La Nina conditions will certainly influence the global pattern over the next few months, but will not be the only factor, so we are expecting some deviation from traditional La Nina impacts. Taking a look at several factors we came up with our analog years. The composite upper-air pattern as well as temperature and precipitation anomalies for our analog package can be seen below.
A brief look at some climate model ensembles we can see some similarities between our analog package and the recent modeling. However, the modeling is much warmer in northeast Asia than our analogs. Our analogs also look wetter in Turkey and parts of the Middle East compared to the modeling.
Taking everything into consideration here is our winter outlook for Asia.
Our forecast is leaning toward a wetter outlook for Turkey and parts of the Middle East compared to what some modeling portrays. Much of Turkey can have above-normal precipitation with a few opportunities for snow, especially later in December and January. Some precipitation can reach southward to Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia on occasion, but these systems can frequently miss the southern Arabian Peninsula, portions of Iraq and western Iran.
The storm track is expected to be such that there should be fewer western disturbances affecting Afghanistan, Pakistan and northern India than recent winters with precipitation expected to average below normal in these areas, as well as Nepal into Bangladesh. Precipitation is also expected to be below normal in southeast China. Warm waters in the eastern Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific should result in much of southeast Asia, the Philippines and southern India into Sri Lanka being wetter than usual. Cloud cover and precipitation are expected to result in temperatures near to perhaps below normal in portions of southern India and southeast Asia.
There is a chance for tropical threats in the northern Indian Ocean and Philippine Sea into the South China Sea early in the winter. The best chance for tropical development in the northern Indian Ocean looks to be in December when there can be one or two systems of depression intensity or stronger. Any development in the Bay of Bengal has a good chance to impact southern India and Sri Lanka, which can lead to more flooding problems, especially in already saturated parts of southern India.
Firefighters rescue people from a flooded residential area after heavy rain in Chennai. Photo: AFP
The West Pacific looks to start December on a quiet note with a better threat of tropical development later in December and perhaps carrying into early January. The areas most likely to be impacted by any tropical development in the West Pacific should be the Philippines, southern China and Vietnam.
Northeast Asia has already experienced cold shots in November, but overall, autumn has been milder than normal across eastern China into the Korean Peninsula and Japan. More cold shots are expected across these areas in December and January which can result in a few opportunities for snow. The frequency of cold shots may ease late in the season, but the cold earlier in the season is expected to result in temperatures near to slightly below normal in northeast China and the Korean Peninsula.
Much of Japan should be milder than normal, but there will still be brief cold shots into the nation which should result in near- to above-normal snowfall in the favored sea-effect snow areas of western and northern Japan. Tokyo can have a little snow, especially in midwinter with snowfall expected to be close to normal.
The combination of cold shots and frontal systems can result in near- to above-normal snowfall in Beijing and Seoul. Normal snowfall in Beijing is 3-8 cm (1-3 inches) and 8-16 cm (3-6 inches) in Seoul. Beijing has already had about 4 cm or about 1.5 inches, so snowfall is already close to normal in the area. Farther south and west we are expecting snowfall to be lower than last year across the mountains of Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwest India into Nepal. Snowfall can be lower than usual in these areas as well.
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