Weekly clues to the long-range forecast
Before I get to the long range, a large, slow-moving, upper-level storm will send a series of impulses northward into Alberta through this weekend. The result will be some much needed rainfall, even in the Fort McMurray area.
1. Heaviest rainfall through the weekend will be concentrated over central Alberta, including the Edmonton area with the potential for 30 to 60 mm of rain.
2. Much of northern and western Alberta is under moderate to severe drought conditions and this rainfall should bring at least some temporary relief to the region.
3. In addition to the drought, significant rainfall is expected over the some of the larger wildfires. This additional rainfall should continue to help slow the advancement of these fires. Unfortunately, the summer is expected to be very warm and drier compared to normal which could mean that some of the larger fires may continue to burn through the entire season.
4. Some light rain or drizzle may impact the Fort McMurray area on Saturday and early Sunday. However, there are indications of more significant rainfall (10-20 mm) later Sunday into early Monday morning as the storm system lifts northeastward toward the region.
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Long-range forecast model interpretation
