Long-range weather pattern update

The latest data suggests that the next two weeks will remain generally colder than normal with some well-below-normal days mixed in across the eastern half of the United States and up into Ontario and Quebec. Expect several cold fronts to migrate southeastward from north-central Canada and down into the eastern U.S. This type of pattern usually does not lead to big precipitation makers, with several Alberta clipper-type storms.

There is also a lack of upstream blocking over the next couple of weeks (positive phase of the NAO), thus fronts and storms will move along, with brief warmups ahead of the fronts and sharply colder air behind the fronts.

In the West, expect mostly above-normal temperatures with strong ridging just off the coast over the next 10-14 days.

Starting around the week of Feb. 18, things will start to change, as the MJO may favor a milder pattern for eastern North America, while the West turns colder.

This may be the final stretch of sustained, very cold air for the eastern half of the U.S. before the potential pattern change delivers milder air for the last 10 days of the month and into early March.