Irene Update

Hurricane Irene continues to track WNW/NW moving toward the Bahamas. The hurricane will get on western side of the high pressure system over the north Atlantic and turn northward Friday. Computer models are in fairly good agreement that Irene will track up across eastern New England later Sunday and then into New Brunswick.

Most of the modeling has trended slightly east with the path and more toward a classic East Coast hurricane track. However, the new ECMWF mode, which actually has one of the best track records for hurricane tracking, has actually trended a little more west and brings the hurricane up across western Long Island (remember 1938) and then into western New England. Even though we still favor a more eastern track than what the ECMWF shows, you still have to respect that the model may be on to something. There is still plenty of time to fine tune the projected track.

Impacts for Canada.........

1. Main rain band should run up along and east of the St. Lawrence River and into the Gaspe, including most of New Brunswick. Parts extreme southeastern Quebec to western and northern New Brunswick could end up with 100-175 mm of rain Sunday into early Monday, despite the increasing forward speed of the hurricane. Along and east of the track through most of Nova Scotia and PEI rainfall will be much less. Obviously flash flooding will be a concern near the rivers and streams.

2. Even though Irene will be steadily weakening Sunday night, the strong winds will spread out to the east and northeast of the storm, resulting in sustained tropical storm force winds over Nova Scotia, PEI and perhaps southeastern New Brunswick. Hurricane force wind gusts are likely over southern nova Scotia early Monday.

3. 30 foot plus waves will impact the south coast of Nova Scotia Monday with some storm surge flooding. Winds and waves will be less as you head up toward Cape Breton.

4. This will not be similar to Juan for Nova Scotia. Juan came directly at Halifax from the south and remained strong due to unusually warm water. Irene should track farther west, weaken faster and come in at a less dangerous angle.

5. The track of Irene reminds me of Hurricane Bob from 1991 in a certain way.

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