Clues to February 2022

The long-range weekly outlook for February looks quite challenging, to say the least! Teleconnection signals are either weak or in conflict. Long-range forecast models diverge significantly once we get to the second week of February, thus confidence in this outlook is now lower than average.

I will say that it appears to me that the overall pattern does support significant storminess during the first two weeks of February somewhere across the eastern third of the United States and Canada; however, where that main storm track is going to set up is still highly in question, and that will be the key to what areas get the most snowfall.

A lot of the answers will depend on where the upper-level ridge sets up in the northern Pacific over the next few weeks. Does it set up over Alaska? Does it set up along the west coast of Canada or even the Rockies? The European model has it more over Alaska, which means the core of the cold shifts back into western North America. The CFSv2 has the ridge much farther east, which means the cold is more concentrated from Hudson Bay down through the Great Lakes. At this point, the smart play is to keep our options open and play it somewhere in the middle.

Regardless of which model is closest, it looks like February could be an active month with extremes.

Oh, and by the way, there is the potential for a major storm this weekend across Atlantic Canada with high winds, heavy snow and perhaps even rain.

Here are my best shots at the weekly February pattern.....