Steady rain leaves Middle Atlantic Sunday; near-summer warmth Tuesday
Updated Apr 24, 2021 8:42 PM EST
On Friday afternoon, I made my first trip of the year to Horseshoe Curve, located about 5 miles west of Altoona, Pennsylvania. Dug out by hundreds of workers with shovels and picks, the Pennsylvania Railroad opened it to rail traffic in 1854. Trains still navigate the Curve every day, and it is a National Historic Landmark. The rail line is now owned by Norfolk Southern. In the early days, passenger trains were frequent, but today there is only one train in each direction daily between Pittsburgh and New York City... operated by Amtrak. Riders entering Penn Station at 8th Avenue and 33rd St. in New York City may wonder why it is called Penn Station. The original station was built by the Pennsylvania Railroad. The historic upper portion of the train station was demolished decades ago to make way for the current Madison Square Garden. The iPhone picture above shows a train coming downhill from the summit of the Allegheny Mountains (more than 2,100 feet above sea level) on its way to Altoona (around 1,100 feet above sea level) and then Harrisburg. When the Curve opened, a rail trip from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh took less than one day versus multiple days for the same trip before the Curve was available.
It looks like there are two trains in the picture but "both" are part of the same train. The part on the right is clearly higher than the part on the left. The part on the right is approaching the Curve, and the part on the left is departing from it. This freight train, with more than 100 cars, had three locomotives at the front, two at the back, and one in the middle of the train. Their job on this part of the journey was simply to prevent the train from speeding up and racing downhill. The following picture shows two helper locomotives. They travel back-and-forth between Altoona and the crest of the Alleghenies, alternately pulling trains uphill and keeping them from racing downhill.
The clouds that moved across the middle of Pennsylvania on Friday vanished in time for a clear night. The next picture, taken Saturday morning, shows the northeast edge of a cloud deck associated with a rain storm destined to affect the Middle Atlantic states Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This satellite radar composite shows the approaching wet weather system.
The two radar picture is that follow show how quickly the rain was advancing on Saturday afternoon. The first one was from just before 2 p.m. and the second picture was just after 4 p.m. ET.
This map shows the GFS predicted rainfall between Saturday afternoon and Monday evening. Use the scale on the right to estimate how much rain should fall at your location.
The map below for 2 a.m. Sunday shows the rain already reaching central New Jersey and ending in West Virginia. There is a trailing band of light rain across southern Ontario and Lake Erie.
The next map suggests that by the middle of Sunday morning the rain will have diminished across most of Pennsylvania while the leading edge crosses New England. The trailing band looks like it is affecting western Pennsylvania.
By 2 p.m., the main area of rain is departing from the East Coast but the trailing band seems to be expanding a bit as it crosses western New York and Pennsylvania. Remember that all the shading is just precipitation over a six-hour period. This means that in the trailing band of showers, it may not rain very long at any one place.
Drier and somewhat chillier air will advance across New England Sunday night. You can see a southerly flow of warmer air spreading from Texas toward the western Great Lakes. The warmer air encounters resistance when it reaches chillier air in the Upper Midwest; rain freezing rain and snow result. Let's see if it encounters of the same resistance farther east.
Fortunately for those who want it to warm up, it looks like warm air is making a good advance on Tuesday. It looks like a cold front is organizing in the northern Plains.
By Wednesday at 2 p.m., I expect to be recovering from morning cataract surgery. Outside, it will feel like summer from the Gulf Coast to much of Pennsylvania.
The maps below for Thursday and Friday afternoons suggest the cold front will slow down as it moves east, but become a significant rain producer. Note the low pressure area that moves from Louisiana on Thursday to West Virginia on Friday, the highest risk for severe thunderstorms will be south and east of the track of that low pressure area.
If the slow-motion idea with a cold front is correct, it will be slow to clear in the Middle Atlantic states and New England on Saturday. However, there appears to be a vast area of dry and warmer weather west of the clouds all the way out to the Rockies - good news for the Northeast in the first week of May. However, there will be an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes whenever the next cold front crosses the Central and Eastern states.
After glancing at the Euro run for the same period, I suggest taking this forecast for next weekend with a grain of salt. The Euro has a totally different look, and AccuWeather will be working to sort things out in time to help you with plans.
If you are curious about what the phrase "a grain of salt" means, a Google or Bing search will give you some reading material!
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Weather Blogs / Northeast US weather
Steady rain leaves Middle Atlantic Sunday; near-summer warmth Tuesday
Updated Apr 24, 2021 8:42 PM EST
On Friday afternoon, I made my first trip of the year to Horseshoe Curve, located about 5 miles west of Altoona, Pennsylvania. Dug out by hundreds of workers with shovels and picks, the Pennsylvania Railroad opened it to rail traffic in 1854. Trains still navigate the Curve every day, and it is a National Historic Landmark. The rail line is now owned by Norfolk Southern. In the early days, passenger trains were frequent, but today there is only one train in each direction daily between Pittsburgh and New York City... operated by Amtrak. Riders entering Penn Station at 8th Avenue and 33rd St. in New York City may wonder why it is called Penn Station. The original station was built by the Pennsylvania Railroad. The historic upper portion of the train station was demolished decades ago to make way for the current Madison Square Garden. The iPhone picture above shows a train coming downhill from the summit of the Allegheny Mountains (more than 2,100 feet above sea level) on its way to Altoona (around 1,100 feet above sea level) and then Harrisburg. When the Curve opened, a rail trip from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh took less than one day versus multiple days for the same trip before the Curve was available.
It looks like there are two trains in the picture but "both" are part of the same train. The part on the right is clearly higher than the part on the left. The part on the right is approaching the Curve, and the part on the left is departing from it. This freight train, with more than 100 cars, had three locomotives at the front, two at the back, and one in the middle of the train. Their job on this part of the journey was simply to prevent the train from speeding up and racing downhill. The following picture shows two helper locomotives. They travel back-and-forth between Altoona and the crest of the Alleghenies, alternately pulling trains uphill and keeping them from racing downhill.
The clouds that moved across the middle of Pennsylvania on Friday vanished in time for a clear night. The next picture, taken Saturday morning, shows the northeast edge of a cloud deck associated with a rain storm destined to affect the Middle Atlantic states Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This satellite radar composite shows the approaching wet weather system.
The two radar picture is that follow show how quickly the rain was advancing on Saturday afternoon. The first one was from just before 2 p.m. and the second picture was just after 4 p.m. ET.
This map shows the GFS predicted rainfall between Saturday afternoon and Monday evening. Use the scale on the right to estimate how much rain should fall at your location.
The map below for 2 a.m. Sunday shows the rain already reaching central New Jersey and ending in West Virginia. There is a trailing band of light rain across southern Ontario and Lake Erie.
The next map suggests that by the middle of Sunday morning the rain will have diminished across most of Pennsylvania while the leading edge crosses New England. The trailing band looks like it is affecting western Pennsylvania.
By 2 p.m., the main area of rain is departing from the East Coast but the trailing band seems to be expanding a bit as it crosses western New York and Pennsylvania. Remember that all the shading is just precipitation over a six-hour period. This means that in the trailing band of showers, it may not rain very long at any one place.
Drier and somewhat chillier air will advance across New England Sunday night. You can see a southerly flow of warmer air spreading from Texas toward the western Great Lakes. The warmer air encounters resistance when it reaches chillier air in the Upper Midwest; rain freezing rain and snow result. Let's see if it encounters of the same resistance farther east.
Fortunately for those who want it to warm up, it looks like warm air is making a good advance on Tuesday. It looks like a cold front is organizing in the northern Plains.
By Wednesday at 2 p.m., I expect to be recovering from morning cataract surgery. Outside, it will feel like summer from the Gulf Coast to much of Pennsylvania.
The maps below for Thursday and Friday afternoons suggest the cold front will slow down as it moves east, but become a significant rain producer. Note the low pressure area that moves from Louisiana on Thursday to West Virginia on Friday, the highest risk for severe thunderstorms will be south and east of the track of that low pressure area.
If the slow-motion idea with a cold front is correct, it will be slow to clear in the Middle Atlantic states and New England on Saturday. However, there appears to be a vast area of dry and warmer weather west of the clouds all the way out to the Rockies - good news for the Northeast in the first week of May. However, there will be an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes whenever the next cold front crosses the Central and Eastern states.
After glancing at the Euro run for the same period, I suggest taking this forecast for next weekend with a grain of salt. The Euro has a totally different look, and AccuWeather will be working to sort things out in time to help you with plans.
If you are curious about what the phrase "a grain of salt" means, a Google or Bing search will give you some reading material!
Report a Typo