Northeast weather to feature variety with no extreme heat
Updated Jun 11, 2021 9:51 PM EDT
With a lack of strong weather and weak flow aloft, the Northeast can expect several changes in the weather this weekend and early next week with few temperature extremes.
The GFS forecast flow aloft at 8 p.m. ET Friday shows a northwesterly current sending cool air toward northern New England and a stronger southwesterly flow sending air from California and Oregon to the northern Plains. The flow over the southern Plains and over the middle Atlantic states is quite weak. In contrast to 50-mph winds over Oregon and Maine, the flow over north Texas and over West Virginia and southern Pennsylvania is closer to 10 mph.
The satellite radar composite shows clouds, showers and thunderstorms from Alabama and Georgia to Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A trough aloft is supporting clouds and some thunderstorms from Manitoba to eastern Kansas and another trough supporting clouds and showers in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlighted the area from eastern Kansas to North Texas for an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms later in the day into the evening.
At mid-afternoon on Friday, the most concentrated showers and thunderstorms were in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey south through coastal Maryland, but there were other areas of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain as seen on the map below.
When I was walking Scotty to dog this morning, the radar shows a shower approaching from the south but it was just overcast at my location. We had nearly three-fourths of an inch of rain between then and early afternoon. While that was heavy, it was nothing like the heavy rain that caused flooding in parts of southwest Pennsylvania and the Ohio Valley Thursday and Thursday night
The following picture was taken at 3 p.m. The clouds looked threatening, but there were only a few drops of rain at the time.
The forecast map for Friday afternoon at 2 p.m. handles the middle Atlantic states rainfall pretty well.
By Saturday afternoon, most of the rain is predicted to end in the middle Atlantic states and even farther south as the area of showers seems to dwindle. The showers and thunderstorms that were over the upper Midwest on Friday look less impressive around Lake Michigan on Saturday, but showers and thunderstorms have expanded farther south from Illinois to Mississippi. This activity looks related to what was forming west of this area on Friday afternoon.
Sunday's map suggests there is a weak cool front on a line from Lake Erie southwest to Arkansas. There is another area of showers over the upper Great Lakes. The map below for Monday afternoon suggests those showers will be off the East Coast, but it looks unsettled from Michigan to New England as the shower zone from the upper Great Lakes advances with the flow aloft. South of those showers from Ohio to the middle Atlantic coast Monday, highlights a pretty warm day overall.
The GFS predicts fewer showers for the Northeast on Tuesday followed by dry weather regionwide on Wednesday. The main uncertainty at midweek will be related to a pocket of cold air aloft shown causing showers in eastern Canada Wednesday. Some of the computer models had previously shown this area of showers and chilly air farther south than on this map.
Looking ahead to next Thursday, it looks fine in most of the Northeast However on Friday, another cold front is set to being to approach.
Here is a sampling of forecast for the next week. A couple of the maps are labeled "15-day forecast" but my aversion to promising things that far in advance kept me from showing the second line of forecasts here. However, if you're curious about events beyond the first week, there is plenty to look at on the AccuWeather app!
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Weather Blogs / Northeast US weather
Northeast weather to feature variety with no extreme heat
Updated Jun 11, 2021 9:51 PM EDT
With a lack of strong weather and weak flow aloft, the Northeast can expect several changes in the weather this weekend and early next week with few temperature extremes.
The GFS forecast flow aloft at 8 p.m. ET Friday shows a northwesterly current sending cool air toward northern New England and a stronger southwesterly flow sending air from California and Oregon to the northern Plains. The flow over the southern Plains and over the middle Atlantic states is quite weak. In contrast to 50-mph winds over Oregon and Maine, the flow over north Texas and over West Virginia and southern Pennsylvania is closer to 10 mph.
The satellite radar composite shows clouds, showers and thunderstorms from Alabama and Georgia to Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A trough aloft is supporting clouds and some thunderstorms from Manitoba to eastern Kansas and another trough supporting clouds and showers in the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlighted the area from eastern Kansas to North Texas for an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms later in the day into the evening.
At mid-afternoon on Friday, the most concentrated showers and thunderstorms were in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey south through coastal Maryland, but there were other areas of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain as seen on the map below.
When I was walking Scotty to dog this morning, the radar shows a shower approaching from the south but it was just overcast at my location. We had nearly three-fourths of an inch of rain between then and early afternoon. While that was heavy, it was nothing like the heavy rain that caused flooding in parts of southwest Pennsylvania and the Ohio Valley Thursday and Thursday night
The following picture was taken at 3 p.m. The clouds looked threatening, but there were only a few drops of rain at the time.
The forecast map for Friday afternoon at 2 p.m. handles the middle Atlantic states rainfall pretty well.
By Saturday afternoon, most of the rain is predicted to end in the middle Atlantic states and even farther south as the area of showers seems to dwindle. The showers and thunderstorms that were over the upper Midwest on Friday look less impressive around Lake Michigan on Saturday, but showers and thunderstorms have expanded farther south from Illinois to Mississippi. This activity looks related to what was forming west of this area on Friday afternoon.
Sunday's map suggests there is a weak cool front on a line from Lake Erie southwest to Arkansas. There is another area of showers over the upper Great Lakes. The map below for Monday afternoon suggests those showers will be off the East Coast, but it looks unsettled from Michigan to New England as the shower zone from the upper Great Lakes advances with the flow aloft. South of those showers from Ohio to the middle Atlantic coast Monday, highlights a pretty warm day overall.
The GFS predicts fewer showers for the Northeast on Tuesday followed by dry weather regionwide on Wednesday. The main uncertainty at midweek will be related to a pocket of cold air aloft shown causing showers in eastern Canada Wednesday. Some of the computer models had previously shown this area of showers and chilly air farther south than on this map.
Looking ahead to next Thursday, it looks fine in most of the Northeast However on Friday, another cold front is set to being to approach.
Here is a sampling of forecast for the next week. A couple of the maps are labeled "15-day forecast" but my aversion to promising things that far in advance kept me from showing the second line of forecasts here. However, if you're curious about events beyond the first week, there is plenty to look at on the AccuWeather app!